Election Central: Lookout’s updated pointers to our election coverage

Update: 9:17 p.m., Sunday

Monday is the day for the next voter tally from the Santa Cruz County Clerk.
After Friday’s addition of 23,744 votes, 61,622 votes have been counted so far — with at least 37,000 to go. That doesn’t include any ballots, postmarked by election day, that get to the clerk’s office by Tuesday.

That probably means we have 60-70% of the county vote in.

Lookout will report on the Monday count soon after 4 p.m. Monday.

For the latest report, covering every race in the county, check out “Santa Cruz vote in 40 charts: track who’s up and who’s down in last tally of the week”: https://lookout.co/santacruz/election-2022/story/2022-11-08/general-election-2022-results

Update: 12:22 p.m. Wednesday

We’ve now got all the counted votes put into charts for your easy scanning. Santa Cruz County Clerk Tricia Webber’s office tallied 37,878 through the wee hours on election night. So below, you’ll find all 40 races involving Santa Cruz County, with the county vote. These additional three thousand or so votes beyond our final update last evening don’t change the trajectory of any of the races, though there has been small tightening or widening in several of them. At this point, our analysis below of the major races still stands.

For details on each race, just follow the links for each of the offices.

There are no planned releases of votes before Friday, which is when we next plan to update Election Central.

By that measure, we see these highly likely results:

• Fred Keeley will become the first four-year mayor for the city of Santa Cruz, up by 50 points.
• Measure N, the initiative that would have taxed “empty homes,” will go down, gaining just 38% of the vote.
• On the Watsonville boundary measures, Measure Q — to maintain boundaries as they are — is poised to win over Measure S by double digits.
• Two new California State Assembly representatives for Santa Cruz County will be seated: Gail Pellerin for the new District 28 and Dawn Addis for District 30, each winning about two-thirds of the vote.
• Santa Cruz City Schools Measures K and L, bonds for school improvements, both look like they have safe paths to victory, each with more than 60% of the vote.
• The slate of three incumbent Soquel Water Creek District board members will continue in their jobs, leading their two opponents by a wide margin.
• Measure P, an increase in the city of Santa Cruz transient occupancy tax, looks to be a winner, with 78% yes votes.

Then, there are the races that show candidates and measures with significant, but not yet deciding, leads. These include:

• Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson leads Justin Cummings for 3rd District county supervisor by 5.5 points, with 52% of the vote.
• Felipe Hernandez leads Jimmy Dutra for 4th District county supervisor by 11 points, with 54% of the vote
• Scott Newsome, with 51% of the vote, is well ahead of his two challengers for Santa Cruz City Council District 4.
• Renée Golder, with 63% of the vote, is 26 points ahead of her competitor in Santa Cruz City Council District 6.
• No on Measure O holds a 15-point lead over Yes, with 58% of the vote.
• In Scotts Valley, incumbent Derek Timm holds a 9-point lead over newcomer Alan Timms, whose lead over incumbent Jim Reed for the second seat has narrowed to 2 points.

See all the results in chart form here.

Then there are the races that remain closer:

• For the new Pajaro Valley Health Care District, Joe Gallagher leads two incumbents as they bid for two seats.
• The only contested Watsonville City Council seat, District 7, remains a toss-up between incumbent Ari Parker and former council member Nancy Bilicich.
• In Capitola, incumbent Yvette Brooks leads her four competitors, who are all neck and neck for three city council seats.

Update: 12:16 a.m. Wednesday

We’re close to calling it a night here at Lookout Central — and what an unexpectedly decisive night it was. Most Santa Cruz County races seem like they are on the road to be decided, as described below. Such decisive votes might appear odd, given the spirited nature of the campaigns, but apparently our anecdotal gauge of lawn sign numbers may not be good predictors of vote.

County Clerk Tricia Webber is counting the final 2,000 or so votes of the day, and we’ll add those to our own charts Wednesday. As we reviewed those final votes of the day, none have changed the trajectory of these results.

In short, here’s our analysis. We look at the races where candidates or measures have taken about a two-thirds of the vote or more. Since seemingly less than a third of the vote might be in, we can’t mathematically declare winners. But given the math, those on the short end of an approximate two-thirds/one-third split have an almost-impossible task ahead.

See all the results in chart form here.

By that measure, we see these highly likely results:

• Fred Keeley will become the first four-year mayor for the city of Santa Cruz, up by 54 points.
• Measure N, the initiative that would have taxed “empty homes,” will go down, gaining just 37% of the vote.
• On the Watsonville boundary measures, Measure Q — to maintain boundaries as they are — is poised to win over Measure S by double digits.
• Two new California State Assembly representatives for Santa Cruz County will be seated: Gail Pellerin for the new District 28 and Dawn Addis for District 30, each winning about two-thirds of the vote.
• The slate of three incumbent Soquel Water Creek District board members will continue in their jobs, trouncing their two opponents by a wide margin.
• Measure P, an increase in the city of Santa Cruz transient occupancy tax, looks to be a winner, with 78% yes votes.

Then, there are the races that show candidates and measures with significant, but not yet deciding, leads. These include:

• Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson leads Justin Cummings for 3rd District county supervisor by 8 points, with 54% of the vote.
• Felipe Hernandez leads Jimmy Dutra for 4th District county supervisor by 11 points, with 54% of the vote
• Scott Newsome, with 53% of the vote, is well ahead of his two challengers for Santa Cruz City Council District 4.
• Renee Golder, with 63% of the vote, is 26 points ahead of her competitor in Santa Cruz City Council District 6.
• No on Measure O holds a 16-point lead over Yes, with 58% of the vote.
• In Scotts Valley, incumbent Derek Timm holds a 9-point lead over newcomer Alan Timms, who is beating incumbent Jim Reed for the second seat.

See all the results in chart form here.

Then there are the races that remain closer:

• For the new Pajaro Valley Health Care District, Joe Gallagher leads two incumbents as they bid for two seats.
• The only contested Watsonville City Council seat, District 7, remains a toss-up between incumbent Ari Parker and former council member Nancy Bilicich.
• In Capitola, incumbent Yvette Brooks leads her four competitors, who are all neck and neck for three city council seats.

It’s been a relatively quiet evening at the Santa Cruz County elections office at the government center on Ocean Street.

At about 7:27 p.m., a line of 11 cars formed to drop off ballots in the parking lot. Almost 30 minutes later, the last few voters trickled in to vote in-person.

“It was great to see it was consistently busy,” Santa Cruz County Clerk Tricia Webber told Lookout’s Hillary Ojeda. “So the rain and the weather didn’t dampen Santa Cruz County voters.”

She swiftly called it for the night at 8 p.m., shouting in the hallway of the third floor, “The polls are now closed!”

Staff and volunteers then began switching out voting booths for tables covered in stacks of ballots.

For the rest of the evening, they’ll be counting all of Tuesday’s in-person votes and updating the county’s results, aiming to post online every 1½ hours. They’ll finish Tuesday’s shift counting only the in-person votes from Tuesday.

As for all the vote-by-mail ballots that were postmarked Tuesday or submitted at ballot drop boxes on Election Day, staff will begin to process those Wednesday.

At about 4 p.m. Tuesday, Webber said that about 10,000 vote-by-mail ballots had been picked up from drop boxes, and that doesn’t include the vote-by-mail ballots that were received in the mail Tuesday. For the rest of Tuesday, county workers continued picking up vote-by-mail ballots from drop boxes each hour, adding to that earlier estimated 10,000.

This all contributes to how difficult it is to know just how many people have voted in this election in Santa Cruz County as of Tuesday evening.

With early voting and what staffers tallied from Tuesday’s in-person voting just after 11 p.m., a total of 32,562 votes had been counted. At least one more update of in-person votes was expected to be posted online at about 12:30 p.m. to conclude the night – which for the reasons stated above, is still far from being final.

Elections staff will process the vote-by-mail ballots for the next couple of days and aren’t likely to post another update on the results until Friday, according to Webber. Her office will post daily updates on where it is in the process.

She added that election officials won’t truly know the final turnout until the results are certified.

Update: 11:25 p.m.

At 11 p.m., Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson held a lead of 53% to 45% with more than 6,000 votes counted, for the 3rd District Santa Cruz County Supervisor seat, now being vacated by two-term incumbent Ryan Coonerty.

“I’m very optimistic,” said Kalantari-Johnson told Wallace Baine within the past hour, after learning of her early lead in the vote count, “but not just because of the returns, but what I’ve been hearing from voters, knocking on doors. Someone told me, ‘Walk until your feet bleed.’ So, I think my feet are almost literally bleeding. I think a foot massage is in order.”

Kevin Painchaud caught up with Kalantari-Johnson on Tuesday night to hear how she was feeling after the first round of votes counted.

Update: 11:14 p.m.

Another 2,500 votes have been counted at the county clerk’s office, and we’ll be adding them to our vote totals soon. That’s 32,500 votes counted — and getting close to the end of the night for counting. Don’t expect the next tally until Friday, says Tricia Webber, the county clerk.

It looks like both Assembly Districts 28 and 30 are going strongly to Democrats Gail Pellerin and Dawn Addis, respectively, first-time Assembly candidates for the newly drawn districts.

Pellerin, the longtime Santa Cruz County Clerk, is ahead 68-32% districtwide, for the district that is 70% Santa Clara County, 30% Santa Cruz County. As expected, she took a whopping 79% in her home county, and is even drawing 65% in Santa Clara County, home to her challenger, Republican Liz Lawler.

“I’m overwhelmed and grateful for all who voted,” Pellerin told us within the past hour. “If I’m elected, we’ve made history. I would be the first woman from Santa Cruz to serve on state Assembly, but I won’t be the last.”

She says the path to these results has been unforgettable. “It’s been an amazing experience, and I had an amazing opponent who focused on the issues and who was committed to a thriving District 28.”

Democrat Dawn Addis is similarly trouncing her Republican opponent, Vicki Nohrden, 63-36%. Though Santa Cruz County forms only 20% of the three-county district (which includes Monterey and San Luis Obispo, where the teacher serves as a Morro Bay city council member), she is winning 76% of the vote.

(Note the vote totals in our tally story show only the Santa Cruz County vote.)

Update: 10:07 p.m.

We’ve got all the votes in through the most recent count. Here are the top races, all up to date, with the rest of the 39 local races being filled in within the next few minutes. Refresh your browser to see the latest results. We expect a next tranche of votes around 11 p.m., which could be the last of the night.

The trends are holding from the first count, now with 30,000 votes counted, which should be 25-30% of the vote when all counted.

Those leaders, all of whom have held their leads since the early count:

Santa Cruz County

• Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson for District 3 County Supervisor
• Felipe Hernandez for District 4 County Supervisor

City of Santa Cruz

• Fred Keeley for Santa Cruz mayor
• Scott Newsome for Santa Cruz City Council District 4
• Renée Golder for Santa Cruz City Council District 6

California State Assembly

• Gail Pellerin for Assembly District 28
• Dawn Addis for Assembly District 30

For the measures, the trends look clearer, but aren’t yet definitive:

City of Santa Cruz

• No on N, the empty homes tax
• No on O, opposing the library-mixed use development in downtown Santa Cruz
• Yes on P, the increase in city’s transient occupancy tax on hospitality

Santa Cruz City Schools

• Yes on K and L, school bonds for Santa Cruz City Schools
  

Watsonville

• Yes on Q, to keep the city’s urban boundaries as they are

The latest numbers on them here.

Christopher Neely, Max Chun, Wallace Baine, Hillary Ojeda, Thomas Sawano and Blaire Hobbs have reports on the major races below.

➤ Fred Keeley leads in Santa Cruz mayor’s race

➤ Scott Newsome takes early lead in Santa Cruz City Council District 4 race

➤ Renée Golder leads Sean Maxwell in Santa Cruz City Council District 6 race

➤ Santa Cruz County Supervisor: In District 4 Felipe Hernandez holds comfortable lead over Jimmy Dutra

➤ Santa Cruz’s Measure N: No vote leads in empty homes tax debate

➤ Santa Cruz’s Measure O: No side leads in early voting

➤ Soquel Creek Water District: Incumbents Jaffe, Christensen, Lather lead in crowded director’s race

➤ California State Assembly: Gail Pellerin leads in District 28 race

➤ California State Assembly District 30: Dawn Addis leads in early vote counts

➤ Santa Cruz City Schools: Yes on Measures K & L leading races so far

➤ Pajaro Valley Health Care District candidates Marcus Pimentel and Joe Gallagher take the lead

Update: 9:42 p.m.

We’ve got 8,000 more votes in from the county clerk’s office — now 30,000 total. We’re putting in the vote totals in our race-by-race charts here, and will let you know as they are updated.

Update: 9:15 p.m.

We’ve got the first results tallied for you here.

So far 22,148 votes have been counted. That should be about one-fifth of the total votes overall, but we won’t know that number for days.

The tally includes should have included all the in-person votes that happened before Tuesday and the vote-by-mails that County Clerk Tricia Webber’s office has counted.

So far, understanding that early trends might not be definitive, those candidates in the lead:

• Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson, for District 3 County Supervisor
• Felipe Hernandez, for District 4 County Supervisor
• Fred Keeley, for Santa Cruz mayor
• Scott Newsome for Santa Cruz City Council, District 4
• Renée Golder for Santa Cruz City Council, District 6
• Gail Pellerin for Assembly District 28
• Dawn Addis for Assembly District 30
• Ari Parker for Watsonville City Council

So far, understanding that early trends might not be definitive, where the measures stand.

• No on N, the empty homes tax
• No on O, opposing the library-mixed use development in downtown Santa Cruz
• Yes on P, the increase in city’s transient occupancy tax on hospitality
• Yes on K and L, school bonds for Santa Cruz City Schools

Catch up on those results and 25 other races with our handy election charts here.

7:50 p.m.

Welcome to Lookout’s Election Central. Our whole newsroom of 10 is bringing you the results tonight as fast as we can get them accurately reported.

Correspondent Hillary Ojeda is at the County Clerk Tricia Webber’s office, relaying the tallies as soon as they come in. We expect that first round of counted ballots shortly after 8 tonight, likely by 8:20.

At Lookout, correspondent Max Chun is leading the charge on putting together the 38 charts that collectively will tell us how this election went. We’ll let you know here at Election Central as we can report new totals.

Overall, we expect three tranches of vote tallies this evening from the county. Check back throughout the night as we expect a steady flow of results, and better yet, make sure you can get our alerts — email and/or text — to know immediately when they are ready.

Our staff is also deployed at the watch parties just now filling up with supporters on this rainy, rainy Tuesday. We’ll let you know where the politicos are hanging out — and hope to pop the champagne.

Keeley jumps out to substantial lead in Santa Cruz mayor’s race

In the race to become Santa Cruz’s first directly elected mayor, Fred Keeley finds himself exactly where he and many others imagined he would be — in the lead by a wide margin and well on his way to victory over opponent Joy Schendledecker.

With early voting ballots tallied, Keeley leads Schendledecker 77.8% (3,476 votes) to 21.6% (965 votes). Twenty-five votes were cast for an unnamed “write-in.” Polls closed at 7 p.m. and election results will continue to trickle in throughout the evening and, likely, the coming days.

How it’s looking for Measure O

In early voting the controversial Measure O — which addresses the fate of a new downtown library and the farmers market among other things — fell behind by a margin of 18 points.

“It’s early,” said former Santa Cruz Mayor Cynthia Mathews, a big No-on-O supporter, “and things can change a whole lot. But it’s a great way to start.”

Rick Longinotti, a central activist behind Measure O, was wistful on Tuesday night. “I’m looking forward to reconciling with the opposition,” he said, “and I think there’s a good chance of that happening. I think a lot of folks who voted against [Measure O] did so because they are interested in affordable housing. Well, we’re interested in affordable housing. So let’s talk.”

Lisa, a volunteer in support of [Measure O], said she had no real hunch about how the vote would go: “I’ve been working on this for years. And I have no idea.”

The watch party for Yes-on-O took place at Woodstock’s Pizza on Front Street. The party took over the entire outdoor patio along the street and included about 100 people. No-on-O activists were literally right across the street at Abbott Square, with a crowd considerably smaller.

Russell Brutsche, an artist and activist, is a strong Yes-on-O supporter. He created a miniature model of downtown Santa Cruz that Measure O proponents used as an illustration of what downtown was becoming. Brutsche said, “I don’t think the early returns are going to mean much.” He pointed to UC Santa Cruz students as possible difference-makers, if O is defeated. “That was our main concern,” he said, “that [students] might tip the balance against us, even though students are generally more green. But we think overall, we have a much more green proposal.”

Golder leads Maxwell in District 6 race for the Westside’s first directly elected city council rep

With early voting ballots tallied, incumbent City Councilmember Renée Golder leads challenger Sean Maxwell 64.1% (489 votes) to 35.7% (272 votes) in the race for the District 6 Santa Cruz City Council seat. Two votes were cast for an unnamed write-in candidate.If Golder can hold on, the incumbent will become the first city council member directly-elected to represent a district of Westside residents. The oddly shaped District 6, which Maxwell has referred to as the “Louisiana Purchase district,” reaches from the UCSC campus in the northwest, and the southern half of the Circles neighborhood to the southeast. Roughly 10,500 residents live in District 6. Golder was not immediately available for comment.“I’m not going to jump to any conclusions yet, I’m just going to wait it out and see what happens,” Maxwell said.

In Soquel Water District, incumbents take early lead

Bruce Jaffe, Carla Christensen and Rachel Lather lead as the top three vote-getters with 28.4% (2,776 votes) 25.6% (2,504 votes) and 28.2% (2,759 votes), respectively. Challengers Corrie Kates (8.6%) and Kris Kirby (9.2%) hold the bottom two slots. Thirty-two votes were cast for an unnamed “write-in.”

The Soquel Creek Water District serves more than 40,000 people across Aptos, La Selva Beach, Opal Cliffs, Rio Del Mar, Seascape, Soquel and portions of Capitola. In a moment in which more and more local elections are uncontested, the water district races have drawn a crowded ballot.

Yes on Measures K&L leading races so far

With early voting results tallied, two school bonds totaling $371 million for the Santa Cruz City Schools District are tipping toward a yes vote.

Of the 10,296 votes counted, yes on Measure K (for the Santa Cruz High School District) had 62.68% of the vote, while no had 37.32%.

Meanwhile, the yes on Measure L (for the Santa Cruz Elementary School District) had 65.29% and those opposing it had 34.71%, out of the 4,934 votes counted so far.

The elementary and high school districts have different boundaries and, therefore, a different number of registered voters.

Santa Cruz City Schools need at least 55% of voters within the boundaries of its elementary and high school districts to approve the measures in order to issue the bonds.

Marcus Pimentel and Joe Gallagher take the lead in Pajaro Valley Health Care District open seats

With 4,777 votes counted, Marcus Pimentel and Joe Gallagher are leading the race for the two open seats on the Pajaro Valley Health Care District board. Gallagher took an early lead with 41.64% of the vote ahead of Pimentel’s 31.58% and Jasmine Notanee Nájera’s 26.14%.

The health care district boundary has 42,286 voters in Santa Cruz County and 4,443 voters in Monterey County. Nájera and Pimentel are incumbents.The newly formed Pajaro Valley Health Care District now owns and operates the Watsonville Community Hospital. The hospital declared bankruptcy in December, pushing a coalition of local governments and health organizations to form a nonprofit to raise and purchase it with the goal of returning the hospital to public ownership.

Where they’ll be gathering

At the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) headquarters on Santa Cruz Westside, there’ll be quite an assemblage. Santa Cruz City Council candidates Sean Maxwell and Hector Marin will be joined by would-be supervisor Justin Cumnings and the Yes on N crowd.

Santa Cruz mayoral hopeful Fred Keeley is greeting people at his house. Not far away, at Hotel Paradox, supervisor candidate Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson and the No on N people await results. At Abbott Square, No on O congregates, while, across the street, at Woodstock’s Pizza, it’s Yes on O and Keeley opponent Joy Schlendecker.

At Jalisco’s in Watsonville, it’s District 4 supervisor Felipe Hernandez and Yes on S. Jimmy Dutra, Hernandez’s opponent is at Carmona’s.

Already, we’ve got a picture of the developing vote.

How many of us will vote in Santa Cruz County?

As of Monday afternoon, the county had received 41,000 vote-by-mail and early in-person voting ballots out of about 167,000 registered voters in Santa Cruz County. In other words, 24.5% of registered voters had submitted early ballots the day before election day.

On Tuesday, as of 4 p.m., Webber said that about 4,200 people had voted in-person across the county, and officials had picked up an additional estimated 10,000 vote-by-mail ballots that had been dropped off.

On Election night, she said her office will post the “unofficial” results sometime between 8 p.m. and 8:20 p.m. Those results will include all the in-person votes that happened before Tuesday and the vote-by-mails that they have processed.

California voters elect Gavin Newsom to second term as governor

California chose the incumbent over an unfamiliar Republican state senator from Lassen County who struggled to compete with the Democratic political heavyweight. The race was called by the Associated Press shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m.

The election solidifies the 55-year-old Democrat’s success at the ballot box. Newsom captured the governor’s office in 2018 with the biggest margin of victory in more than half a century and buried the GOP-led effort to recall him by the same advantage three years later.

After easily defeating Dahle, the socially progressive governor returns for another four years to lead a state on the verge of becoming the fourth-largest economy in the world while simultaneously experiencing record homelessness, a dire shortage of affordable housing, and rising crime.

Padilla makes more history

Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla made history again when he became the first Latino to be elected to represent California in the U.S. Senate. The 49-year-old broke a barrier in 2021 when he was sworn in to fill Kamala Harris’ seat after she became vice president.

His appointment by Gov. Gavin Newsom was celebrated as providing representation for the large and growing Latino population in the state. On Tuesday, voters chose Padilla to complete Harris’ term through Jan. 3 as well as for a full six-year term of his own. In both elections, he defeated GOP attorney Mark Meuser.

How do political rookies spend Election Day?

Sean Maxwell, the challenger for the District 6 City Council seat, woke up at 5 a.m. and drank coffee, an unusual morning brew for the loose leaf yerba mate aficionado. After a 6:30 a.m. meeting, he spent much of the rainy day at UCSC, working on getting students registered to vote.

Standing over a pot of homemade chicken soup, Maxwell told our Christopher Neely over the phone that his Election Day mantra has been “self-care.”

“That means making sure I don’t over-exert myself and remembering to eat,” Maxwell says. “I don’t feel nervous. I don’t feel like I should have done more. The only hard thing is that we’re not really going to know the full results for a couple days with mail-in ballots still coming in.”

Maxwell will head over to the SEIU Local 521 building for a watch party, where he will be joined with other candidates on the ballot such as District 3 Supervisor candidate Justin Cummings and District 4 City Council candidate Hector Marin. Measure N supporters will also be in attendance.

For Joy Schendledecker, the mayoral candidate up against Fred Keeley, nervous excitement combined with the sound of the morning’s pounding rain meant an earlier rise than normal. A bowl of Quaker oat squares for breakfast preceded a morning filled with a doctor’s appointment and retrieving her e-bike from the repair shop.

“I’ve been obsessively checking social media and pacing around the house, I’m not really sure what to do with myself,” Schendledecker tells me. The mayoral hopeful’s stress snacks have included an assortment of leftover cheeses — swiss and cheddar — and an apple. “I realize I’m stress-eating so the apple is me trying to balance it out.”

Schendledecker’s team will head over to Woodstock’s Pizza for her election night party. Supporters of Measure O will also be there.