Santa Cruz County’s point-in-time count remains an imperfect measure of homelessness

Trekking through cold mud and soggy grass as the sun just barely peeks over the horizon isn’t many people’s first choice for a Thursday morning, but that’s exactly what City of Santa Cruz Homelessness Response Coordinator Megan Bunch was doing in the area around Neary Lagoon before 7 a.m. for this year’s point-in-time count.

The point-in-time (PIT) count is an annual, federally designated effort meant to provide a picture of homelessness throughout the county. At least once every two years in January, homeless service workers and volunteers fan out across every county in the United States, driving and walking the streets to count the number of unhoused residents. 

On Thursday, about 100 participants worked the count in Santa Cruz and about 30 in the Watsonville.

Bunch, along with homelessness outreach worker Jeremy Leonard, Veterans Affairs Supportive Housing Santa Cruz supervisor Shannon Healer and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Chief Acquisition Officer Michael Parrish, were in charge of the area of Santa Cruz that holds Neary Lagoon, bounded by Bay Street, California Street, Laurel Street and Mission Street, and including all the side streets in between.

At about 5:30 a.m., the group of four piled into a city-owned van to begin the first part of the count, driving throughout the downtown area. In residential areas like this, simply counting the number of unhoused people is much more challenging than it sounds. To respect privacy at such an early hour, participants do not interact with the people they spot. 

People on the move during the early morning hours might or might not be unhoused, and just carrying a bag or two doesn’t necessarily ensure that they don’t have a place to live. If a participant spots a tent, they have to estimate the number of people within it by indicators like size, clothing or vehicles like bikes. The group even drove around apartment complex parking lots to check out any possible dwelling areas there.

Last year’s PIT count was met with some skepticism after it showed a 21.5% decline in the number of people experiencing homelessness, to 1,804, down from nearly 2,300 in 2022. Every city in Santa Cruz County saw a drop in its unhoused population except for Watsonville, which saw a 15% increase. The number of unhoused families with children also increased last year, as well as the number of unhoused K-12 students. Additionally, 3 out of 10 unhoused individuals were employed in some way. 

Bunch said the city is aware that the counts aren’t perfect. This year’s numbers are also likely to come with a big asterisk. “Internally, we know these numbers aren’t fully accurate,” said Bunch. “It’s not that we know they’re too low or too high, we just don’t know.”

The city’s oversized vehicle ordinance also changes the picture for this year’s PIT count. The ordinance banning recreational vehicles and other large vehicles from parking on the street overnight finally took effect in December after a long battle with the California Coastal Commission. The city expanded its safe parking program when the ordinance came into force, opening 33 overnight parking spaces. 

But although the ordinance allows officials to accurately count those in the safe parking programs, it still doesn’t give a full picture of vehicle dwellers.

“It tells us who’s interested in the program, but also, the program doesn’t include all car dwellers,” said Bunch. “The ordinance is only for oversized vehicles.” So the group made sure to check out somewhat larger vehicles for signs of inhabitation, such as extra gear, supplies and foggy windows indicating someone inside. The group did not include any vehicles in its count Thursday.

Working in homelessness response gives the group a leg up, since they have their boots on the ground quite often and know where people tend to stay — or even know of specific people in specific places.

“I’ve been able to see Santa Cruz differently in this position,” said Leonard. “You can get a good mental map of all the nooks and crannies.”

Bunch drove around the group’s tract for about an hour, occasionally slowing down to observe potentially unhoused people. They agreed that one person wrapped in a blanket near the Salvation Army on Laurel Street should be included in the count, while a man on a bike with a backpack and shopping bag should not.

Shortly after, the group parked at the Depot Park lot and headed toward Neary Lagoon by foot. Following the unused train tracks, stepping over puddles along the way, the group spotted three tents and two occupied micro tiny homes — 8-foot-by-4-foot structures that are movable, lockable and insulated. That would end up being the largest gathering of unhoused residents that the group would find Thursday. They saw fewer than 10 throughout the morning.

The Neary Lagoon area acts as a microcosm of the PIT count’s dynamic nature, as well as the city’s efforts to get people into shelters. Bunch pointed to a new metal fence installed late last year, separating the open space by the tracks from the water treatment plant. Just a few months ago, they would have seen many more people in the area.

“We had a pretty sizable encampment back in here,” she said. “It took a lot of time and outreach to get those folks, who were willing, into shelter.”

As the four group members finished the Neary Lagoon loop just before 8 a.m., now with the sun fully shining, they were done with their designated tract. Their tally was quite low. But in the mostly residential area the group scoured, that isn’t much of a surprise.

“If there were unhoused people in these neighborhoods, we’d hear about it,” said Leonard. “The neighbors would say something pretty much right away.”

In Watsonville, it was a different story. One group that traversed the whole stretch of the Pajaro River levee counted more than 200 tents. To give an idea of how many people that might be, trackers will typically multiply the number of tents by a factor of 1.75 to estimate the number of dwellers within them.

A report with this year’s data is expected to be complete by the end of summer.

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