Quick Take
Santa Cruz County has fared well during the winter COVID, RSV and flu season. But COVID spread is increasing again as relatively few people have gotten the latest COVID booster and waning immunity means those who got over infections this winter are starting to become susceptible again.
As the season for respiratory viruses comes to an end, COVID hospitalizations are down from earlier this winter.
However, Santa Cruz County Health Officer Dr. Lisa Hernandez warned that some trends are showing an increasing spread of COVID, meaning she “can’t feel comfortable yet.” She added that low uptake rates for the latest COVID booster and waning immunity means the county will continue to see its COVID numbers ebb and flow.
The tripledemic of COVID, flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) peaked in December 2022 as social gatherings rebounded from years of pandemic restrictions, clogging emergency rooms with people seeking tests for all three viruses.
This past year didn’t see nearly the same surge as 2022; Hernandez said the county dealt with this winter’s respiratory virus season “fairly well.”
“We definitely saw peaks with all three viruses in our community, with some requiring hospitalization,” she said. “And though we did see cases that required inpatient care, I think we did fairly well.”
The most recent county data, from last Wednesday, showed just five patients hospitalized with COVID. The highest recorded total this winter was about 16 in early January.
While that is good news, Hernandez pointed to the current reproductive number — the number of secondary infections caused by a single original infection. That number had been below 1, and falling, which indicates decreasing spread. However, since mid-January, it has been on the rise once again.
“I was hoping that we’d stay comfortably below 1, but if you look at it now, it’s basically right at 1,” said Hernandez. “I hope I’m wrong, but we may cross over 1 and see increased transmission.”
If respiratory virus season is waning, why is COVID transmission seemingly increasing again? Hernandez said it could be for a number of reasons.
One of the biggest reasons could be due to many community members who had a previous infection this winter becoming susceptible again as their immunity begins to wear off.
“Those people that were sick in late December and January are now susceptible again,” Hernandez said, adding that it typically takes about 90 days for a previously infected person to be susceptible to catching COVID again. Given that the predominant variant, JN.1, might be more contagious than other variants and now makes up about 93% of cases, many people can be infected in a short period of time.
Further, Hernandez said, the reformulated vaccine produced to target Omicron and its subvariants has seen extremely low uptake rates. She said that only 20.5% of Santa Cruz County residents have received the vaccine, despite evidence showing that it is effective against JN.1.
“The thing is, it’s doing well if people are vaccinated,” she said. “That’s part of the challenge, because [the rate] is actually worse than I thought.”
Hernandez said that in addition to getting vaccinated, people should contact their health care provider if they are infected so they can get antivirals, like Paxlovid, which are effective in combating an infection.
Hernandez added that masking, of course, helps slow the spread of the disease, but at this point, it is “very much every person’s personal decision.”
“And the big thing is if you feel sick, test yourself or get tested,” she said. “It could be any respiratory disease, and there are medications for the top viruses that are circulating.”
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