Familiar names highlight state races in 2024 general election

Santa Cruz County voters will see their ballots crowded with local school and fire district bond measures, sales and business taxes, and a slew of candidates for city council and school board. However, there are a number of state and federal seats up for election, too. Those include three state Assembly seats, two U.S. congressional seats and a state senate seat. All feature well-known and well-established Democratic incumbents with a strong advantage over challengers in name recognition and the partisan makeup of the region.

Most Santa Cruz County residents will cast votes for State Assembly 28th District — a race that appears exactly as it did in 2022. Incumbent and longtime Santa Cruz county clerk Gail Pellerin is running for reelection against Republican challenger and retired Monte Sereno mayor Liz Lawler, the same opponent Pellerin faced in the previous election — and beat  68% to 32%.

In the California Assembly’s 29th District, which covers parts of Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, San Benito and Monterey counties, incumbent Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas seeks his fourth term, having won each of his past three elections handily. He faces off against Republican teamster truck driver James “JW” Paine. 

District 30, while mostly covering Monterey County and the southern Central Coast, also encompassing parts of inland and coastal mid Santa Cruz County, including Capitola, Soquel, Aptos and coastal Watsonville. That race sees incumbent Dawn Addis facing off against challenger Dalila Epperson. In 2022, Addis defeated Republican challenger Vicki Nohrden, receiving 60% of the vote to Nohrden’s 40%. Epperson, also a Republican, helped organize a forum in Corralitos last year that included a number of controversial “parents’ rights” groups, most notabl, Moms for Liberty. The Southern Poverty Law Center had labeled that group an anti-government extremist group earlier in 2023.

In the state Senate’s 17th District, incumbent John Laird is running for a second term. Laird has roots in Santa Cruz, having served as a city councilmember and mayor during the 1980s. He also served three terms in the state Assembly from 2002 to 2008. He won his first Senate term in 2020, 64.7% to 35.3%. His Republican challenger this year is Tony Virrueta, a former U.S. Army Ranger.

At the national level, U.S. Rep Jimmy Panetta seeks reelection in U.S. House District 19. If elected, it would be Panetta’s second term representing District 19, having served three terms representing District 20 before it was renumbered to its current iteration, District 19. He defeated Republican challenger Jeff Gorman in 2022 by 68.7% to 31.3%. He is challenged this year by Republican and small business owner Jason Anderson, who, if elected, hopes to peel back what he views as “overregulation” of the energy sector and economy, protect parents’ rights and crack down on election security.

For the U.S. House District 18 seat, incumbent Zoe Lofgren is seeking her 16th term in Congress. She was the first female U.S. representative for the 16th District before it was redistricted into the current 19th. She is challenged by Republican and small business owner Peter D. Hernandez, who advocates for closing the border, reducing inflation and establishing energy independence to lower gas prices.

While all of these races are contested, it is unlikely that any of them will be particularly competitive, said Santa Cruz County Democratic Central Committee Chair Andrew Goldenkranz. He said that the candidates running for reelection have proved themselves to be capable leaders both in office and on the campaign trail.

“Part of the secret to their success is that they’re interested in good governance and getting results. Even though they’re on the Democratic side, they do a good job of representing everyone,” he said.

Goldenkranz said that the incumbents’ experience and deep knowledge of the area gives them a major advantage. He cited Panetta’s knowledge of agriculture and coastal protection, while Laird makes appearances all around the state: “They’re good at covering the districts, listening and getting out to neighborhoods and communities.”

Goldenkranz also said that Republican challengers will have added difficulty this year given the current state of American politics.

“It would require serious missteps by Democrats,” he said, like sending polarizing messages rather than unifying the electorate. 

Goldenkranz said that Republican candidates would possibly perform better with a more moderate choice. He pointed to Santa Cruz County District 5 Supervisor Bruce McPherson, who was registered as a Republican prior to 2012, as an example of that.

“He’s a good listener with local roots, and it would take someone like that,” he said. “More of a centrist Republican rather than a MAGA Republican. In the current climate, I think that’s highly unlikely.”

Peter Verbica, chairman of the California Congress of Republicans, sent Lookout a letter he authored titled “A hand-hewn letter to citizens of the free world,” which states that the organization stands for “personal liberty, a strong national defense, limiting governmental overreach, and for the unparalleled benefits of free enterprise and small business.” He did not respond to Lookout’s follow-up requests for comment on the state races.

Santa Cruz Mayor Fred Keeley, who served in the state Assembly from 1996 through 2002, agreed that the races are unlikely to be competitive. He added that while major issues such as housing affordability, homelessness, coastal protection and public education are similar in the district, not every candidate is in the same position. Laird and Rivas are “well-known quantities” that hold a lot of weight in the legislature, especially with Rivas being the assembly speaker, while Addis and Pellerin face an important first reelection effort this year.

“In my experience both in my case and in others, absent some kind of scandal, the first reelection is the one that they need to get the same or more of the vote than they received last time,” he said. “A lower percentage of the vote means some voter dissatisfaction.”

Keeley said that both Addis and Pellerin face somewhat of a challenge by being well-known in some parts of the district and less so in others. Pellerin is well-known in Santa Cruz, but most of the 28th District is in Santa Clara County.

“It’s a Democratic district, so they voted for a Democrat, but now the question is what did she do during the first term and how did she match up with their values in Santa Clara,” he said. “Housing, homelessness, public education and fair elections are all issues valued in that area, and she has worked effectively on those issues. She is letting them know who and what she is, largely through the campaign.”

Keeley added that Pellerin’s strength has long been her understanding of how elections are run, which has been a major issue across the country and state since the disruption of the pandemic. Keeley sees Pellerin’s standing as chair of the Assembly Elections Committee as a notable advantage.

“She occupies a position in Sacramento that everyone is concerned with,” he said. “Whatever she lacked in that first term, she has a position that goes to an issue that everyone cares about.”

Addis, on the other hand, has the challenge of adequately reaching the northern part of her district, Keeley said. Addis is from Morro Bay, one of the southernmost parts of the district, but represents people as far north as Live Oak.

“The good news is that she’s a former schoolteacher, and education is important to people. She has Morro Bay City Council credit for coastal issues, housing and homelessness,” he said. “Her challenge is conveying that in the northern and middle parts of the district.”

But even with those challenges, Keeley thinks the incumbent candidates are well-attuned to their electorates: “No one running for election for assembly or senate is out of sync with their district.”

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