Strong El Niño could bring a wet winter: Pajaro flood officials are taking extra precautions

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As climate experts forecast a strong El Niño this winter, officials responsible for protecting communities along the Pajaro River are taking unusually aggressive steps to prepare an aging levee system that they know remains vulnerable to flooding. 

The Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency plans in the next few weeks to remove vegetation from certain areas of the levee and clear sediment from Salsipuedes Creek, said executive director Mark Strudley. 

“Based on what we’re hearing, there’s a pretty good chance for it to be overall a wet winter, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we would get flooding or catastrophic events,” said Strudley, adding that because of community and local officials’ concerns, the agency is taking “special preparatory measures” this year. 

El Niño is a climate pattern associated with the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that most commonly results in wetter, colder winters in the southern part of the United States and warmer, drier winters in the northern regions. 

National Weather Service meteorologist Karleisa Rogacheski previously told Lookout that it’s hard to predict what the impacts will be for Santa Cruz County. It could mean drier, milder conditions for the region, or the opposite: wetter, stormier weather. 

Rogacheski told Lookout that the latest forecasts from early July give about a 71% chance of a very strong El Niño event in the October-November-December range, and an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño event in the November-December-January range. The most recent time there was a strong El Niño event was during the 2015-16 season. 

The flood management agency will also explore the costs and feasibility of strengthening parts of the levee — particularly on the Monterey County side, where it had breached in both 1995 and 2023. However, Strudley said the amount of work to fortify the levee will most likely come down to costs, which could be up to $1 million. 

“We’re trying to figure out strategically, you know, how we best invest the little money that we do have in the best way possible,” he said. “If we spend it all now, we won’t be able to sustain ourselves through a wet winter.” 

He added that this year’s winter preparation is a bit more aggressive than what the agency typically does. There’s a lot of routine maintenance that happens every year, which includes vegetation trimming, inspecting culverts and mowing. 

Things like vegetation and sediment falling into the river or creeks could lead to potential flooding. 

“We’re also under special conditions right now because we have an old levee that’s going to be rebuilt soon,” Strudley said. “We know that it’s vulnerable and the community’s vulnerable.”

Currently, crews are working to rebuild newer, stronger levee walls along the river that will help prevent flooding from impacting nearby communities. The nearly $600 million project is led by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Work on the first reach, stretching from Corralitos Creek through Green Valley Road in Watsonville, began earlier this year and is expected to go through the winter season, said Strudley. 

Once it starts raining this winter, the work will have to pause for a period of time, Strudley said, because it will be too wet to do construction work.

“Then, we’ll just have to hope the part of the system that’s built performs, and the parts elsewhere that aren’t built aren’t subject to flooding.”

Regardless of the El Niño forecast, there’s always concern heading into the winter months, he said.

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