Quick Take
A strong El Niño climate pattern is forming and currently has a high likelihood of manifesting in the winter months. While the pattern usually causes either drier or wetter winters depending on the region, the Central Coast is often a coin flip.
A strong El Niño climate pattern has a strong chance of developing this winter, which could mean drier, milder conditions for Santa Cruz County — or the opposite: wetter, stormier weather.
“It’s kind of hard [to predict] for the central portion of the state,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Karleisa Rogacheski. “It’s really in Northern and Southern California that can see the drastic swings.”
The phenomenon is a climate pattern associated with the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that most commonly results in wetter, colder winters to the southern parts of the United States and warmer, drier winters to the northern regions.
Rogacheski said the latest forecasts from early July give about a 71% chance of a very strong El Niño event in the October-November-December range, and an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño event in the November-December-January range. The most recent time there was a strong El Niño event was during the 2015-16 season.
Rogacheski said that it’s important to note that an El Niño forecast is not the same as a weather forecast, and it does not predict whether there will be significant atmospheric river events, when and where they will be, and how strong they might be. She added that when she worked in Sacramento, it was similarly difficult to predict there as it is in Santa Cruz County.
“It was about equal chances to see all of the scenarios, and we just have to prepare for each El Niño season and treat every event like its own thing,” she said.
Rogacheski added that currently, the Central Coast region is sitting at about equal chances of below-normal or above-normal levels of precipitation, with the caveat that it’s not always entirely clear how things will play out until closer to the winter season — as close as just a couple of weeks.
“It also depends on how the jet stream plays out too. Right now, there is increased monsoon moisture, so Nevada, Arizona and Southern California might be seeing a little bit more thunderstorms this summer,” she said. “But until we get to the winter, we’re kind of in a wait-and-see game.”
But knowing that the range of outcomes is unpredictable, NWS aims to keep partner agencies and local jurisdictions aware of the shifting picture.
“We always advertise that we have to be prepared for it to be dry, and we should also be looking at a scenario of what heavier rain, stronger winds, and that kind of thing might look like,” said Rogacheski.
Like meteorologists, local governments have to prepare for any scenario well in advance of the winter months.
City of Santa Cruz spokesperson Erika Smart told Lookout via email that the city prepares year-round for emergencies and severe weather, no matter the forecast.
“While meteorologists continue to monitor developing ocean and weather patterns that could influence this winter’s conditions, the city routinely plans and trains for a range of storm scenarios to help protect public safety and critical infrastructure,” she wrote.
Working with organizations like California State Parks, UC Santa Cruz, the Santa Cruz County Office of Response, Recovery, and Resilience (OR3), and the NWS, the city will focus on tree and vegetation management; inspecting the Santa Cruz Municipal Wharf; maintaining drainage, stairs, fencing, and more on West Cliff Drive; and readying storm response at city beaches. City crews are preparing storm response vehicles and equipment such as chainsaws, barricades and fencing.
“The City’s recent experiences with severe winter storms have reinforced the importance of proactive planning and have informed many of the resilience and emergency preparedness efforts now integrated into routine operations,” Smart wrote. “As the winter season approaches, the City will continue monitoring forecasts, coordinating across departments and partner agencies, and providing the community with preparedness information and storm safety resources as conditions warrant.”
Tiffany Martinez, the Santa Cruz County Department of Community Development and Infrastructure spokesperson, told Lookout that while the county does not have a specific plan, it is aware of the likely El Niño event and is aiming to have a more specific plan by September. The department expects to meet with operational crews, OR3 and public works to plan both regular winter storm preparations and El Niño preparations
“We still need to meet to strategize, but we’d like to ensure that we are fully prepared to handle an El Niño weather event to the best of our abilities,” she said.
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