Quick Take

On Tuesday, a Santa Cruz County Superior Court judge will decide whether Adrian Gonzalez, convicted as a juvenile for the 2015 murder of Madyson “Maddy” Middleton, will be released before his 25th birthday in October or head to a jury trial to determine his next steps. Here are the possible scenarios.

After four days of testimony, cross-examination and many questions surrounding mental health treatment, the hearing on the potential release of Adrian Gonzalez wrapped up last week, leaving the next step in his case in the hands of Santa Cruz County Superior Court Judge Denine Guy. She is slated to issue a ruling on Tuesday to either release Gonzalez as he ages out of the juvenile justice system ahead of his 25th birthday or to send his case to a jury trial to determine whether there’s cause to hold him beyond then.

Gonzalez, now 24, was 15 when he kidnapped, raped and murdered 8-year-old Madyson “Maddy” Middleton, who was his neighbor in Santa Cruz’s Tannery Arts Center. 

Initially, prosecutors wanted to try Gonzalez as an adult. However, a new California law at the time — Senate Bill 1391, which passed in 2016 — prohibited prosecuting people under the age of 16 as adults. The bill faced a number of challenges over subsequent years, holding up Gonzalez’s case. When the California Supreme Court ultimately upheld SB 1391 in early 2021, officially barring the prosecution of people under 16 as adults, it finally pushed Gonzalez’s case forward. He was convicted later in 2021 as a juvenile under the eyes of the law, even though he was in his 20s by then, because the crime took place when he was 15.

Now, nine years after the crime and about three years since his conviction, Gonzalez was set to be released this year due to aging out of the juvenile justice system when he turns 25 in October. The Santa Cruz County District Attorney’s Office challenged his release, prompting the recent probable-cause hearing. Santa Cruz County Chief Deputy District Attorney Tara George, as prosecutor, must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Gonzalez is not fit to be released this year.

On Tuesday, Guy will rule on that challenge. Here is what we know, and don’t, about the different possible outcomes and what might happen next.

What happens if Judge Guy rules in favor of Gonzalez’s release?

If Guy rules against the district attorney’s office, then Gonzalez will move toward his release. That could happen any time before his 25th birthday in October. Testimony from the probable-cause hearing pointed to Gonzalez continuing treatment and pursuing an education.

Where Gonzalez would be released remains undetermined. Legal counsel said that nowhere is off limits, and that even Santa Cruz County is possible. Where Gonzalez would be released and what exactly he would be required to do upon release is largely up to the county probation department.

What happens if Judge Guy sides with prosecutors who oppose Gonzalez’s release?

If George is successful, Guy could rule that there is probable cause to push back Gonzalez’s release, which would send the case to a jury trial. Like in the probable-cause hearing, George would try to convince the jury that Gonzalez is not safe to release.

Since the court has jurisdiction over Gonzalez only until his 25th birthday in October, any trial would take place before then. If the jury decides that he is releasable, he could go free shortly after the conclusion of the trial.

How would a jury trial work?

If the case goes to trial, and the jury unanimously decides that Gonzalez is releasable, he would move toward his release before his 25th birthday. George told Lookout after the final day of the hearing that a jury would have to make a unanimous decision one way or another. If just one juror dissents, the case would require a retrial. It is not clear if Gonzalez would remain in custody beyond his 25th birthday in the event that a trial goes past that date. 

If the judge and a jury rule against his release, how long could Gonzalez be held?

Gonzalez would be held for up to another two years. After that two-year period, this process could happen all over again, if the district attorney’s office challenges his release like it did this year.

What will happen to Gonzalez after release? Or if he continues to be incarcerated?

Testimony from his probable-cause hearing alluded to Gonzalez continuing treatment and rehabilitation in both scenarios, but what exactly he would be required to do and where he would be held is not clear. If he is released, Gonzalez plans to pursue an education through a program for formerly incarcerated individuals, but if he will remain under supervision, by which agency and for how long is unknown.

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Max Chun is the general-assignment correspondent at Lookout Santa Cruz. Max’s position has pulled him in many different directions, seeing him cover development, COVID, the opioid crisis, labor, courts...