Countywide rail plan banks on federal aid to fund $4.3 billion project

Santa Cruz County residents know a bit more about the proposed commuter rail service between Santa Cruz and Watsonville than they knew a week ago — especially about the controversial project’s two biggest questions: Who’s going to ride it? And how much is it going to cost?

On Monday, the staff of the Santa Cruz County Regional Transportation Commission (RTC) faced the public with what it released last Friday in its draft executive summary on the passenger rail project, known by planners as the Zero Emission Passenger Rail and Trail (ZEPRT). 

The report — a preliminary summary of what’s expected to be in the completed final report to be released in the fall — estimated that the ZEPRT train line will attract anywhere from 3,500 to 6,000 riders every day along nine stations across the country. It also put the estimated capital costs of the project at nearly $4.3 billion. 

Monday’s online webinar presented that information and more to the public in advance of a regular RTC meeting scheduled for Thursday in Watsonville. The event included RTC staff and consultants on the project from the San Jose-based firm Fehr & Peers and HDR Engineering. After the presentation, participants took selected questions from the public, mostly on the subject of ridership. Moderator Tiffany Mendoza estimated the number of questions at “nearly 100.”

The panel presented an estimated budget for the project’s capital costs that would include building of the rail line and bridges along the rail line, the nine new stations, support facilities, the vehicles of the train itself, and for the variety of professional services from engineers and contractors. The budget sets aside almost $1.3 billion — not quite a third of the total price tag —for “contingency,” costs that might arise from unknown factors.

“There are other things at this stage of the design that we don’t have a clear understanding of yet,” said Mark McLaren of HDR of such unknowns as environmental mitigations and soil conditions, “and so we provide a contingency within the cost estimate to address that.”

Of how that $4.283 billion price might be paid for, the RTC’s Riley Gerbrandt pointed to the federal government. “There will be federal investment in a project like this,” he said, “at least that’s the expectation.” 

Gerbrandt said that any federal grant for such a project from the Federal Transit Administration or the Federal Railroad Administration would have to include both state and local contributions. The current volatility of federal spending was not mentioned, but Gerbrandt stressed taking a long view of federal funding. “What we see today in the grant landscape might not be the same in a few years’ time or several years’ time.”

As for the experience of the train ride itself, the report stated that the design wanted to keep the time it would take one train to go from one end of the line, Pajaro, to the other, Natural Bridges, to be about 45 minutes. That number, for instance, determined that there would be only nine stations, as a means to strike a balance between convenience of stations and run time of any given train. “It’s a chess game that will continue throughout the project development process,” said McLaren. 

The RTC also announced that it will launch a “virtual open house” this week to allow community members to delve deeper into the project’s details. The RTC will meet on Thursday from 6 to 9 p.m. at the Watsonville City Council chambers. The meeting will also be available via Zoom. 

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