Santa Cruz County braces for political change: new alliances, new sheriff, downtown revivals – all in the shadow of a second Trump presidency

At this time last year, sitting on the precipice of major elections at all levels of government, we presumed 2024 would be a particularly busy one. We might have underplayed it. 

As we now look to 2025, we know it won’t be a year shaped by election campaigns but rather election results. Yes, the mercurial Donald Trump is returning to the White House, but newly elected faces will also be making decisions and setting direction for jurisdictions across the county. 

New perspectives come at an important time as Santa Cruz County and it cities face projects and decisions that could reshape them physically and politically for years to come. Here are the four things Lookout is watching as we head into the new year. 

1. The Trump effect 

Much has already been made about what the second coming of a Donald Trump presidency will mean for the country, California, and our county. And if we’re to take the incoming president and some in his circle at their word, this isn’t much ado about nothing. 

The president-elect has promised to conduct the largest deportation operation in American history; and Trump and some of his administration picks have criticized California for its policies on climate, transgender students and school curriculum. Often, the federal government’s leverage to force states in line is through funding. 

According to the California Policy and Budget Center, California’s $450.8 billion budget for 2024-25 includes roughly $153 billion in federal funds, or about 34%. 

Carlos Palacios, chief executive of the county government, told the board of supervisors in November that federal dollars provide about two-thirds of the county’s budget, and that counties across the country are expecting cuts that could affect “every safety net program we have.” 

The county’s budget has already been upended by natural disaster expenses that still haven’t been reimbursed by the federal government. Earlier this year, looking at the county’s budget and financial forecast, Supervisor Bruce McPherson said he had “never seen anything so dire.”  

A lot of those federally sourced dollars funnel into the county’s Health Services Agency, which uses federal funds for medical services, behavioral health and public health programs through Medicaid and grants.

“We are working with the County Administrator’s Office to identify areas at risk and will monitor any political and funding impacts as needed,” health agency director Monica Morales told Lookout over email. “HSA is also coordinating with community-based organizations and health systems so that we can work together to minimize harm and leverage opportunities.”  

2. Downtowns get down 

In recent years, cities big and small have placed renewed value on downtown vitality as both an economic engine and as a means toward placemaking and city identity. However, the pandemic flipped the function of a successful city center. No longer is it a place anchored by office space and workers, but by residents, restaurants, shopping and entertainment. The term 18-hour city gets thrown around a lot in these conversations as the benchmark: a successful downtown will attract activity starting at 8 a.m. (workers), after 6 p.m. (diners and shoppers) and until 2 a.m. (nighttime revelers). 

Each of Santa Cruz County’s four cities are delegating resources toward their downtowns of the future, but in 2025, we are likely to see major movement in Santa Cruz and Scotts Valley. Watsonville’s downtown specific plan, approved in 2023, is still many years away from being realized. 

In January, Santa Cruz planning staff will release the environmental impact report on the city’s long-discussed vision for a downtown expansion that aims to add 1,600 new residential units, a new, permanent Santa Cruz Warriors arena and an entertainment district, all framed by a pedestrian and bike-friendly streetscape. It’s a generational effort that promises to change the look and feel of Santa Cruz for decades to come. 

An environmental report does exactly as advertised, but it also recommends alternatives for any proposal that carries a significant effect on the environment. The results of these reports, which are required by state law, are known to spur legal challenges from project opponents. The city has been working on the report since the fall of 2022, and its publication will mark one of the most important milestones for one of Santa Cruz’s most important civic debates. 

In December, the Scotts Valley City Council approved the purchase of the lot, and a vision, for its Town Center, a sort of downtown-from-scratch project that a revolving door of city leaders have been promising since the mid-1990s. 

The vision, which is more of a framework for a private developer to make sense of, includes at minimum 300 housing units, two new streets to host a dense commercial district, two large “flexible parcels” for housing or mixed-use developments and two new plazas to welcome outdoor dining and community gatherings. 

The Town Center’s main street will feature a new, permanent amphitheater for events. The city expects to begin fielding development proposals over the next year, but any groundbreaking is still years away. 

3. Regime change complete

Just over four years ago, the Santa Cruz County Board of Supervisors, the only full-time elected body in county politics, was made up of five white men, four of whom had served multiple terms. Even for those who scorn identity politics, the optics of this board were not ideal for a county constituency that prides itself as among California’s most progressive. 

That’s all different as of Monday at 2 p.m. Supervisor Manu Koenig now begins his second term as the most tenured member of the board. When he began his political career in 2020, Koenig’s supervisor colleagues included names like Coonerty, Friend, McPherson and Caput, who each carried long histories and well-established political reputations. In January, he will look down the dais and see Kim De Serpa and Monica Martinez, as well as mid-first-term supervisors Justin Cummings and Felipe Hernandez, each in the first chapter of their political legacies. 

However, Koenig will not be leading this new board with the gavel. This year, the responsibilities of board chair fall on Hernandez. Just as Cummings did in 2024, Hernandez will have to learn quickly so as to effectively manage the meetings and agendas. 

Perhaps the larger question is where the political lines will fall. If past action is any indication of future behavior, Hernandez and Cummings will continue to team up, and people I’ve spoken with have predicted an alliance between Koenig and De Serpa as the two Mid-County representatives. That could immediately put Martinez, who has spent the past 14 years as a nonprofit executive, in the powerful position of tiebreaker. 

One of the most important issues is how this new board handles the proposed overhaul of the county’s cannabis regulations. In 2025, the board will consider allowing local retail shops and farms to open on-site smoking and consumption lounges, with the aim of creating a more robust cannabis tourism sector. Supervisors Zach Friend and McPherson were critical of the proposal, but no longer have a vote. The changes, which are expected to come back in the first quarter of 2025, could give us the first impression of how political lines will fall.

4. The new sheriff in town

Sheriff Chris Clark was appointed to serve a four-year term as the county’s top cop earlier this year — a powerful position responsible for enforcing the law and public safety policies throughout the county’s unincorporated areas. The role is typically up to voters, but longtime Sheriff Jim Hart’s retirement left an open seat with four years left and the supervisors unanimously chose Clark. 

While assuming the office might have been easy for Clark, who didn’t have to campaign, he is walking into a particularly thorny landscape. There are the old issues: an understaffed county jail, an overburdened workforce and a persistent fentanyl crisis. Then there are the new issues: an incoming president bent on deporting undocumented immigrants, statewide support for a more aggressive approach to theft and drug crimes, and the local rollout of the statewide CARE Court system, a new arm of the judicial system that allows local judges to commit some mentally unstable people to conservatorships. 

The first real test for Clark, who was showered with praise from every corner of the county during his appointment hearing, might be the immigration issue. Trump’s promise to conduct the largest deportation operation in U.S. history could mean federal immigration agents come to town. 

Last week, the board of supervisors unanimously supported reaffirming the county as a “sanctuary county” which in part creates a policy of not supporting federal immigration agents. The county did something similar in 2017, and when California legislators that same year sought to pass SB 54, a statewide sanctuary bill, Hart was the first sheriff in the state to support it.

“Our role as law enforcement in the county is not going to change,” Clark said in November following Trump’s election. “There are certain state protections that are in place and then our job is not to enforce federal law. It goes against public safety and to be able to enhance public safety.” 

But what if the Trump administration demands more collaboration this time around? Is Clark ready for a standoff?

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