Quick Take
Two wet weather systems will roll into Santa Cruz County starting Tuesday afternoon, bringing rain, wind and possible thunderstorms through the coming weekend. The National Weather Service will mull issuing beach hazards statements if the swell reaches higher levels than are currently anticipated.
Two weather systems will bring rain and wind with the possibility of large swells and thunderstorms to Santa Cruz County between Tuesday night and around next Monday, but most of the rain will be spread out across that time.
National Weather Service meteorologist Rachel Kennedy said the first system will roll into the area Tuesday night and remain through Thursday, bringing between 1 and 2 inches of rain to lower county elevations and up to 3 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains. The second system will look largely similar in terms of rainfall, with another 1 to 3 inches of rain expected between Friday and next Monday.
Kennedy said the rain will be fairly spread out across the coming days, but the chance of “nuisance flooding,” or minor, localized flooding, is still there, given the soil saturation that could result from the consistent rains.
However, Kennedy added that major streams are not expected to be in danger of flooding. She said the San Lorenzo River is forecast to remain well below the “action stage,” which is when the water surface is near or slightly above the top of the banks. Currently, the river is expected to peak at 7.4 feet both at 3 a.m. early Thursday and 4 p.m. Friday. The action stage for the river begins at 14 feet.
There will be high winds associated with the two weather systems, but they are unlikely to be particularly damaging. Kennedy said the strongest gusts along the coastline and the mountains would be between 35 and 45 mph and between 20 and 25 mph in most other parts of the county.
“But there may be some isolated higher gusts, especially along the ridgetops,” she said.
Kennedy said NWS is not ruling out a beach hazards statement — an advisory warning the public of possible beach-related dangerous conditions, in this case, strong waves and high swells — but that the current conditions are “borderline” for such a warning. Currently, breaking waves of up to 15 feet are possible on Wednesday and Thursday as well as Sunday and Monday. Kennedy said the agency will monitor the coast and promptly issue a beach hazards statement if the swell becomes larger than it expects.
“It’s mainly something to keep in mind, even if people will most likely be away from the beach, it’s still something to be aware of,” she said. “We may see occasional larger breaking waves than is in the forecast, or some periods of higher swells as we get the bulk of the systems.”
If the agency were to issue a beach hazards statement at all, Kennedy said, it would likely be during the first system from Tuesday through Thursday, “but again, it’s borderline.”
Kennedy also said there is about a 15% to 20% chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday through early Thursday. While it appears that most of that activity would happen offshore, thunderstorms are possible at most parts of the county.
“That’s pretty much across the entire California coast up to Oregon,” she said. “So there’s a decent chance that we’ll get thunderstorms.”
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