Quick Take
It’s looking like an indoor weekend for Santa Cruz County residents, with rain in the forecast and coastal hazard warnings issued.
Santa Cruz County, this is your sign to dust off those rain boots and shake out those umbrellas. And if you were thinking about heading to the beach, please think twice.
A stormy weekend is ahead, with rain expected to arrive Thursday night and hazardous coastal conditions expected through early Sunday, Nov. 15. Here’s what to expect.
At 6 p.m. Friday, a high surf warning will take effect and remain active until Sunday at 4 a.m. The National Weather Service (NWS) has also issued a beach hazards statement, which went into effect Wednesday morning and will run through 6 p.m. Friday.
The beach hazards statement warns of an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet expected. Once the high surf warning takes effect Friday evening, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 30 feet are forecast. The largest surf is projected on Saturday.
Tide predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show high tides coinciding with the period of dangerous surf. Friday’s high tide should occur around 11:28 a.m., reaching about 5 feet, with the lowest tide at 7:24 p.m. (0.02 feet). Saturday’s high tide is forecast for 12:11 p.m., reaching an estimated 4.7 feet as the biggest surf is expected to arrive; the tide will fall to a low of 0.20 feet by 8:14 p.m. Sunday’s high tide is forecast at 1:06 p.m., reaching about 4.4 feet, with a low of 0.37 feet at 9:04 p.m.
While the advisories are in effect, the NWS urges people to stay out of the ocean and avoid beaches because of the potentially life-threatening surf conditions.
The hazards include waves powerful enough to overpower swimmers and sweep people into the ocean, even from shore. Strong currents can also pull people into sharp jetties and rocks, increasing the risk of drowning or serious injury.
The NWS emphasizes that people should “never turn your back on the ocean.”
In addition to the harsh coastal forecast, rainfall is expected to move through the county beginning Thursday night, with the heaviest precipitation forecast for Friday.
City rainfall
On Friday, Santa Cruz is forecast to receive about a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch of rain during the day, then around a tenth of an inch at night. This is expected to be the wettest day of the weekend for the city.
Saturday’s forecast calls for a 40% chance of rain before 10 a.m., with conditions expected to clear afterward. The nighttime forecast is dry but cloudy, with patchy fog possible around 3 a.m.
On Sunday morning, showers are probable after 10 a.m., with steady rainfall later in the day. This is expected to persist throughout the night.
These rainfall predictions are based on reports for the city of Santa Cruz specifically, although neighboring coastal communities had similar forecasts at the time of publication.
Mountains rainfall
Forecasts for the Santa Cruz Mountains differ slightly from those along the coast. The following projections are based on reports for Ben Lomond; a wider mountain range view is available here.
Friday’s forecast calls for rain before 10 p.m., with amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday morning has a 20% chance of rain, and fog is expected before 11 a.m. The rest of the day looks relatively clear.
For Sunday, rain is mainly predicted after 4 p.m. and is forecast to continue steadily into the night.
With dangerous surf expected to persist through the weekend and rain moving through the region, residents should follow the latest weather advisories and stay away from local beaches while hazardous conditions remain in effect. Residents can sign up here for the county’s CruzAware alert-notification system.
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