Santa Cruz County voters feel good about our government – that is the lesson I take from March 5 elections 

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We don’t usually do polling of voters in our local elections, so we don’t have much in the way of hard data on why people voted the way they did on March 5, or what they are likely to do if there is a runoff in November. Polls are often pretty soft information, since those polled often like to tell pollsters what they think the interviewers want to hear. But we are not without useful sources on voters’ views in these elections, since we know what the candidates said in speeches, in their literature – and what the public is likely to know about the candidates’ records.

Here is my take on the supervisors: Santa Cruz County voters were decidedly not expressing anger with our existing government or hoping to radically overturn the status quo. In all three races, the largest number of voters expressed their support for those with governmental or quasi-governmental experience and not for those calling for a new order or radically new approach to local government.

In District 1 – which includes Live Oak, areas of the Summit, a piece of Capitola and a wedge into the city of Santa Cruz – the incumbent Manu Koenig has defeated his challenger, Lani Faulkner. Because he received a 52% majority of the vote, he is elected to office and will start his term next year without having to go through a runoff in November. It helped him that there were only two candidates in the race.

Faulker ran a credible campaign with good endorsements from elected officials, notable local citizens and organizations, and her campaign was well funded, particularly by the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). Her major campaign argument was that the race was essentially a continuation of the most recent Measure D campaign – a fight over whether Santa Cruz County will work to create a zero-emission light rail system from Watsonville to Santa Cruz and tie Santa Cruz to the state rail system and the rest of the country.

However, Faulkner appears to have failed to persuade a majority of voters that Koenig stands in the way of that dream. 

He went out of his way to demonstrate that although he remains skeptical the train will be built and operated, he has done nothing but support the necessary steps to move the project forward. In addition, he has done a good job of connecting regularly with his constituents and supporting major expansion of public transit. He has also played a key role on the board in coming up with ideas for and supporting the construction of affordable housing throughout the county, including in District 1.

Faulkner, on the other hand, never created a clear picture of how, if elected, she would address the many other issues for which county government is responsible in a way that is different or more effective than the current board.

In District 5, which includes San Lorenzo Valley and Scotts Valley, with a small wedge into the city of Santa Cruz, Monica Martinez, who was endorsed by Bruce McPherson, the incumbent, took something like 46% of the vote. Because there were four candidates in the race, it was extremely difficult for anyone to receive an outright majority of 50% or more, so there will be a runoff in November between Martinez and Christopher Bradford, the second-place finisher, who received 21% of the vote. 

Martinez received virtually all the organizational and individual endorsements in this race. Although she has no experience in public office, she is well known for her work as the executive director of government-funded programs dealing with homeless issues and of Encompass, the largest social service agency, with mostly government funding, addressing mental health issues.

In a moment of humor at the Democratic Women’s Club election forum, Bradford, following Martinez, who had just listed many of her endorsements, said the “endorsement” he was proudest of, was not being endorsed by McPherson, the incumbent. 

Clearly, he was arguing that it is time for a change.

For him, that is mostly in terms of efficiency. He and Tom Decker, the third-place finisher, both ran a campaign critical of how long and difficult it is to rebuild housing in rural areas after the devastating CZU fire of 2020. Together they received only 41% of the vote to Martinez’s 46%, indicating the edge she will have in the November runoff.

What exactly the reason is for the holdup in county permitting remains unclear. Is it unfair procedures? Incompetent personnel in the county planning department? Or is it just hard to rebuild properties that never had original permits? Or maybe it’s challenging to rebuild in locations we now know could be a future fire danger? 

High interest rates also present a huge obstacle for those who want to borrow for a new construction project. Still, given Martinez’s large lead, it’s clear that the issue never took hold with District 5 voters.

The fourth candidate in the District 5 race, Theresa Ann Bond, is a woman from the Summit area nearer Los Gatos, who expressed no real interest in the rebuilding issue, so it is a reasonable guess that most of her voters who do participate in the November runoff election will be more likely to support Martinez than Bradford. And, if past voting patterns are any measure, the November presidential election is likely to bring out more liberal voters than the March primary, which should favor Martinez with her strong social service background as well. But November is still a long way off and nothing should be taken for granted. Bradford is a candidate who came out of nowhere and ended with a surprisingly good showing

Finally, in District 2, which includes portions of Capitola, Aptos, La Selva Beach, Corralitos, Freedom, the Pajaro River basin and a corner of Watsonville, we will see a runoff in November between Kristen Brown, Capitola mayor and chair of the Santa Cruz Metropolitan Transit District and the Regional Transportation Commission, who received 33% of the vote and Kim De Serpa, longtime Pajaro Valley Unified School District board member and community activist, who received 25% of the vote. That race had five candidates, so the percentages were lower. 

David Schwartz, Republican Central Committee member, who called for major changes in county policy, finished in third place with 20% of the vote and Bruce Jaffe, seasoned chair of the Soquel Creek Water District, finished in fourth place with 17% of the vote. 

Jaffe easily demonstrated his competence and his key role in helping manage a major, multimillion-dollar public agency, but was never really able to explain what approach he would take to running a general service governmental agency like the County of Santa Cruz. Certainly, water policy is an important issue in Santa Cruz County, but it is hardly the only issue the board confronts each week.

The final candidate in District 2 was Tony Crane, who was not trying to get elected, but looking for a platform to criticize District 5 candidate Martinez, for her role in bringing a mental health support home to his neighborhood. As he and others expected, he did not place well in the race.

Brown got significantly more votes than De Serpa and will be in a better position to keep her name in front of the public because of the offices she will hold between now and November, but the race between Brown and De Serpa in November is far too early to call or even predict. These two candidates are both popular local leaders and this race is likely to be closer than the contest that remains in District 5. 

Whichever of the two District 2 candidates is successful in November, the county board of supervisors will have its first, and likely second, woman – if Martinez wins – since 2014. All of our residents would be well served by a victory by either of them.