Quick Take
This weekend’s storm will drop heavy rains on Santa Cruz County, with as much as 4.5 inches of rain hitting lower elevations, and possibly more than 7 inches falling in the Santa Cruz Mountains between Saturday afternoon and Monday afternoon.
Those wishing for a respite from the cold, wet weather of late will have to wait a little bit longer, as the next winter storm system could make landfall in Santa Cruz County as early as Saturday afternoon or evening, forecasters say.
National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Roger Gass said Friday afternoon that in the 48 hours from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon, Santa Cruzans can expect anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 inches of rain at lower elevations and 7 inches or more in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
Wind gusts at lower elevations will likely be comparable to those observed midweek, ranging from 30 mph to 40 mph. The Santa Cruz Mountains could see gusts as high as 74 mph.
“And we can’t rule out the occasional gusts in excess of 50 mph at the coastal regions, either,” said Gass.
Given that the rain in the Santa Cruz Mountains might be more intense than it was earlier this week, the likelihood of major waterways flooding is higher, but not yet a major concern. Gass said NWS projects that the San Lorenzo and Pajaro Rivers have a 40% and 21% chance of reaching their respective flood stages. Flood stage for each river begins when water levels reach 16.5 feet and 24.1 feet, respectively.
As it did earlier this week, NWS has issued a high wind warning and a flood watch for the weekend. The high wind warning will be in effect from early Sunday morning until Sunday night, and the flood watch will be in effect from Saturday afternoon until late Monday morning. Much of the soil in the county is already saturated, and when that is paired with high winds and more rain, the likelihood of landslides, downed trees and power outages will be higher.
County staff will monitor both the San Lorenzo and Pajaro rivers, as well as Soquel Creek, Aptos Creek, Corralitos Creek and Salsipuedes Creek, according to social media posts. County residents who live in flood-prone areas can fill sandbags at pickup locations here.
On-and-off rain will continue for the remainder of Friday into early Saturday morning, but NWS forecasts that it will amount to less than an inch total.
The El Niño year is off to a wet start in the Central Coast and Bay Area, where predicting whether it will be wetter or dryer than usual is often a challenge, since the weather pattern’s signal is typically stronger in both more southerly and northerly parts of the country. However, historical data points to the Central Coast and Bay Area receiving slightly above average precipitation during El Niño years than during other years.
While long-range forecasts as of Friday afternoon showed only small spurts of rain for the remainder of February following this weekend’s storm, and also project a mostly dry March, Gass said that so far that historical trend of somewhat wetter El Niño years in the Bay Area seems to be holding true.
“We’re definitely seeing the El Niño pattern coming to life, so to speak,” he said. “So far, this is playing out like a typical El Niño winter would.”
Click here for the latest news on county-maintained roads, and sign up for local emergency alerts at CruzAware. For more preparation tips, visit the Office of Response, Recovery and Resilience website.
Have something to say? Lookout welcomes letters to the editor, within our policies, from readers. Guidelines here.