Quick Take
California's 2026 gubernatorial election represents a potential inflection point, writes former Santa Cruz County Chamber of Commerce CEO Casey Beyer. Not necessarily a partisan realignment, but a structural one: a fractured Democratic field, competitive Republicans and a volatile political environment shaped by economic pressure and federal conflict.
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California’s 2026 gubernatorial race is no longer a distant abstraction. With the June 2 open primary fast approaching, voters are heading into the most unpredictable governor’s contest the state has seen in more than a decade — and one that could carry outsized consequences for Santa Cruz County.
For the first time since 2010, there is no clear successor lined up to replace Gavin Newsom. After years of one-party dominance in Sacramento — Democrats hold every statewide office and maintain supermajorities in both legislative chambers — the 2026 election represents a potential inflection point. Not necessarily a partisan realignment, but a structural one: a fractured Democratic field, competitive Republicans and a volatile political environment shaped by economic pressure and federal conflict.
That combination matters here on the Central Coast.
So who should you vote for?
Six confirmed Democratic candidates for governor will appear next week in Monterey at a gubernatorial candidate forum hosted by the Democratic Women of Monterey County, the Democratic Women’s Club of Santa Cruz County and the San Benito County Democrats. The forum, scheduled for Thursday, March 12, offers local voters a rare chance to hear directly from candidates seeking the state’s top job.
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR’S RACE: Read more coverage here from Lookout and our content partners
It also highlights a striking disconnect in this race.
Current polling from multiple sources suggests that the candidates generating the most hypothetical statewide support are not the ones appearing on that stage. They are the Republicans.
As of February, Emerson College Polling shows Republican Steve Hilton leading with 17%, followed by Democrat Eric Swalwell at 14%, Republican Chad Bianco at 14% and former Rep. Katie Porter at 10%. A notable 21% of voters remain undecided — underscoring just how wide open and unsettled this race remains.
Polls, of course, are only snapshots in time. But I believe the 2026 governor’s race is a bellwether for the next decade or more. California’s next governor will take office amid mounting fiscal pressure, an uncertain national economy and a federal government increasingly at odds with California’s policy priorities under Donald Trump.
For Santa Cruz County, the stakes are concrete. Economic vitality in our pillar industries – agriculture and tourism – depends heavily on state-level decisions around labor, climate policy, infrastructure and federal coordination.
The next governor will play a central leadership role in determining how California works with Congress and the White House, and how much flexibility local governments are given to manage regional challenges.
The local lens: Santa Cruz County’s priorities
Closer to home, Santa Cruz County’s recent 2025-26 budget documents, planning reports and strategic surveys point to clear priorities for the years ahead: climate resilience, housing development and mitigating the impacts of state funding shifts on health and human services.
The county is actively updating its 2026-2032 strategic plan, with goals centered on sustainability, equity and economic development. At the same time, city leaders in Capitola, Santa Cruz, Scotts Valley and Watsonville face their own policy demands and budget constraints – many of which depend on sustained partnership and responsiveness from Sacramento.
Leadership at the state level will either enable or constrain those local efforts.
One constant remains unavoidable: California faces a growing state budget deficit, compounded by potential federal funding cuts for essential services, including health care. The next governor will be forced to make difficult choices – balancing economic growth, social needs and fiscal discipline in a far less forgiving budget environment.
This year marks Newsom’s final budget cycle, making the current legislative session both a closing chapter and a preview of the challenges awaiting his successor.
As we move toward the June 2 open primary – where the top two vote-getters could conceivably be Republicans under current hypothetical models – the next 90 days are critical.
Key dates are rapidly approaching: Friday as the final day for candidates to withdraw and release tax returns; April 23 and May 21 for pre-election filings. And, by May 4, official ballots will be mailed to all registered voters.
This is the window in which candidates must separate themselves organizationally, financially and substantively from the rest of the field.
What comes next
Santa Cruz County voters will need to look carefully at each candidate, their leadership styles, policy priorities, campaign funding and media strategies. The June 2 primary sets the political table for the November general election.
Get to know your candidates; review their position statements. Educate yourself.
Casey Beyer served as the chief executive officer for the Santa Cruz County Chamber of Commerce from April 2017 to November 2024, following two years as the executive director of the Santa Cruz County Business Council and several years as the senior advisor to the president of the Silicon Valley Leadership Group. He brings more than three decades of experience in public policy, crisis communications, community relations and legislative affairs at the local, state and federal level. He has held senior-level positions advising members of Congress and the state Legislature as well as CEOs of Silicon Valley companies. He now resides in Monterey County.