Quick Take
An atmospheric river is forecast to bring steady rain to Northern California from Friday through next Thursday, with Santa Cruz County expecting as much as 8 inches at its highest elevations.
An atmospheric river is heading toward the Northern California coastline and is forecast to make its way south to Santa Cruz County by Friday. The weather system will likely drop rain on the area through next Thursday, but the risk of flooding remains low.
National Weather Service meteorologist Brayden Murdock characterized the storm as “more of a marathon than a sprint,” as there does not appear to be any one intense deluge over the rainy week. Instead, moderate rain will fall incrementally and consistently across a period of about six days.
Murdock said the main rain band for Santa Cruz County is poised to hit on Saturday, following light rain on Friday, but will still bring less rain to the area than to areas farther north, like Humboldt and Mendocino counties: “It’s just barely touching Santa Cruz County.” Santa Cruzans can expect close to an inch of rain throughout Saturday, with slightly more in the mountain regions.
Murdock added that the system won’t entirely dissipate after Friday. He explained that the atmospheric river will push back north again on Sunday, when the Santa Cruz region will likely see only light rain. However, by Monday night, the system is forecast come back down into the Santa Cruz area.
“In that one, pretty much everybody across the Bay Area and going into the Central Coast will see some rain,” Murdock said. “But the fact that it’s not sitting over us means we’re not dealing with those flood risks that we had earlier in the beginning of the wet season.”
Still, from Friday through next Thursday, the region can expect substantial total rainfall. Over that week, Murdock said the mountain peaks could see between 6 and 8 inches of rain, while the city of Santa Cruz and other lower-elevation areas can expect between 4 and 6 inches.
While NWS has not issued any weather warnings or advisories, Murdock said the agency’s Bay Area and Sacramento offices are discussing whether to issue a flood watch, particularly farther north, should the Russian River in Mendocino County get inundated with rain. Any local advisories would likely not be issued until the weekend, he said, as the higher potential for rain in Santa Cruz County comes early next week.
“Even then, the concerns aren’t high. The highest rain rates we have during all of that is still less than an inch in a six-hour period,” Murdock said. “So that’s pretty moderate rain.”
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