Quick Take
Santa Cruz is still blue, but the veneer of the deep blue, Bernie Sanders-backing city seems to be fading, at least on the local dais, where all of the leading candidates represent the moderate foils to their more progressive left opponents.
By the time 4 p.m. rolls around Monday, most of the vote-by-mail ballots will be tallied and, likely, most of the local implications of the 2024 primary election will become clearer.
With more than 12,000 ballots to be tallied countywide, and still more coming in the mail up until Tuesday, some races remain within a mathematical possibility of flipping; however, Lookout has called two Santa Cruz City Council races and the other two have continued trending in the same political direction as the city’s races in 2022.
Santa Cruz is still blue, but the veneer of the deep blue, Bernie Sanders-backing city seems to be fading, at least on the local dais, where all of the leading candidates represent the moderate foils to their more progressive left opponents. The two called races belong to the incumbents: Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson defeated Joy Schendledecker for the District 3 city council seat, and Sonja Brunner overcame a challenge by Hector Marin to hold onto her seat in District 2. By Friday’s tallies, Gabriela Trigueiro held a steady lead over David Tannaci in District 1 and Susie O’Hara remained ahead of Joe Thompson in District 5.
The local definitions of “progressive” and “moderates” have drawn some debate. The big distinction that followed candidates throughout this election was their views on housing development, the future look of Santa Cruz, and how the city should handle the state-mandated obligation to permit 3,736 new housing units by 2031. The leading candidates (as well as Thompson) each rejected Measure M, the ballot initiative that sought to increase affordable housing requirements on new developments and require a citywide vote before any zoning changes could increase existing height limits. It seems political lines in the city are increasingly tied to affordable housing production and how best to do it. Should the city encourage developers to build and increase housing supply and try to meet demand? Or does the city pass stricter regulations and require greater inclusion of affordable housing in private developments?
Candidates’ backing tells us something about where they sit on the political spectrum. Each of the leading candidates was supported by the politically influential Santa Cruz Together, a group that pulls a lot of funding from local real estate powerhouses such as the Santa Cruz Seaside Company and Swenson Builders. The trailing candidates were endorsed by Santa Cruz for Bernie, included in the local chapter of Democratic Socialists of America’s voting guide, and endorsed by the Service Employees International Union Local 521 (with the exception of Marin; SEIU 521 did not endorse in the District 2 race).
In Santa Cruz, if the trends hold, it will appear that the city has reached a politically moderate consensus that it has been shifting toward since the 2020 recalls of councilmembers Chris Krohn and Drew Glover. For the past year and a half, Councilmember Sandy Brown has represented the leftmost perspective among the local decision-makers, often casting the lone dissenting vote from what has become a six-member majority. However, Brown terms out at the end of this year. If the current leads play out, her successor will be O’Hara, who played a notable role in the recall of Krohn and Glover by testifying publicly about the toxic work environment they were allegedly creating.
However, the outcome of O’Hara vs. Thompson won’t be definitive until we receive a count of the 700 same-day registration ballots cast on election day, which typically come from UC Santa Cruz students. Since Thompson is a third-year UCSC student, many have assumed they could carry that student vote.
One South County political operative and former elected official I spoke with on Friday wondered whether this primary rang “the death knell” for progressives countywide. The city of Santa Cruz’s progressives have taken loss after loss in electoral politics, watching as voters reject rent control and empty homes tax measures, recall progressive city councilmembers and say no to a deep blue slate of candidates over the past two elections.
On Thursday’s edition of “Talk of the Bay” on community radio station KSQD, I posed this question to Ami Chen Mills, a local progressive commentator, operator and onetime supervisor candidate. Chen Mills said the city is seeing the ripple effects of real estate and development’s grasp over politics statewide. She said Santa Cruz Together, which has support from the development industry, and California YIMBY (yes in my backyard), whose mission to solve the housing crisis through development has captured support from younger voters, have aligned in whom they support locally.
Chen Mills also pointed to the influence of a wealthier electorate.
“Santa Cruz in some ways is already gentrified,” Chen Mills said. “I think more money often brings in more public safety … more corporate-friendly attitudes. There has been a real shift toward neoliberal politics here.”
The question prompted a local caller, who identified herself as Nora and has worked with Chen Mills in the past, to weigh in. She said the dismantling of progressive attitudes has been a long time in the making.
“The progressive community in Santa Cruz has been out of sight, out of mind for probably close to 20 years,” Nora said. “This is the first time in the history of progressives in Santa Cruz County, over the last 15 years, that we have no unified, progressive political organization. Santa Cruz Together is very well organized. We have no such thing on our side of the ledger. I don’t know what the politics in this community are anymore.”
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