Quick Take
The city of Santa Cruz has lost 1.3% of its population since 2024 and 3.7% since 2020, a Lookout analysis of the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau finds. The decline is part of a broader exodus from expensive places in California where people struggle to land high-paying jobs.
Santa Cruz suffered one of the biggest yearly population drops among small cities in 2025, ranking second in California and ninth in the nation on a percentage basis, according to a Lookout analysis of the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Small urban areas fall between 50,000 and 200,000 people, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Santa Cruz had a population of around 61,797 in 2025.
The city lost around 1.3% of its population since 2024 and 3.7% since 2020. If the trend holds, Santa Cruz is on track to lose 1 in 20 people from its pre-pandemic population within the next year or two.
The city’s population never fully recovered from the pandemic, which spurred thousands of people to exit. Since 2020, the city has lost close to 2,400 people.
Matt Huffaker, Santa Cruz’s city manager, said the new census figures are estimates and rely heavily on modeling. The census’ latest population figures are from the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program, which calculates the number of people based on births, deaths, migration records and housing units.
Huffaker said other sources, including the California Department of Finance and the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey that will release 2025 figures later this year, have different numbers. For instance, the California Department of Finance reported a yearly population drop of 0.08% for the city in 2025 from 2024.
Timelines might explain some of the gap. The census reports data as of July 1, in part to balance seasonal swings, while the state reports as of Jan. 1.
A population decline appears in the wider county, too. There was a nearly 1% yearly decrease in Santa Cruz County’s population in 2025, the biggest drop among all California counties with more than 100,000 people, according to the U.S. Census. And it has lost 4.7% of its population since 2020, ranking second among California’s larger counties.
The decline is part of a broader exodus from expensive places in California where people struggle to land high-paying jobs.
Santa Cruz has consistently been one of America’s most expensive places to live. In 2021, around 60% of city residents were renters, higher than 40% across the county, and rents typically exceeded $3,000 a month, according to research from UC Santa Cruz.
UCSC enrollment has grown by hundreds of students in recent years, helping offset some population loss. But the university has been slow to add new housing and around half of UCSC’s roughly 20,000 students live off campus.
“Affordability and housing availability remain major challenges facing Santa Cruz and many California communities, and the City remains focused on expanding housing opportunities at all income levels and supporting long-term community sustainability,” Huffaker said.
He said the city is seeing strong housing demand, and that recently completed housing is either fully occupied or leasing up at rates in line with the San Francisco Bay Area.
In the labor market, 57% of the county’s jobs were in the lowest-wage tier in 2024, according to the Santa Cruz County Workforce Development Board. And the county’s employment rate grew only 0.4% between 2021 and 2024, falling behind the state average.
“Coupled with some of the highest housing costs in the state, this imbalance continues to put pressure on working families,” said Andy Stone, director of the Santa Cruz County Workforce Development Board, in a 2025 report.
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