Are you better off than you were seven weeks ago?

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At the end of the 1980 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Ronald Reagan confronted incumbent President Jimmy Carter with a question that has echoed through political debates ever since: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Carter, with surprising candor, answered, “No.”

Now, in our fast-paced, hyperconnected world, that time frame feels almost outdated. Perhaps the more relevant question today is: “Are you better off than you were seven weeks ago?” Let’s take a closer look.

The economy takes a hit

Economists and consumers are worried that tariffs and spending cuts will cause a rebound in inflation. Since Inauguration Day, January 20, major stock indexes have been spiraling downward. The Nasdaq composite has plunged 10.6%, the S&P 500 fell 5.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off by 2.6%. If this trajectory continues, the markets could lose at least a quarter of their value by year’s end — a stark contrast to the stability and growth seen in previous years. The timing of sell-offs corresponds to some White House actions like the Trump tariffs and the Chinese retaliatory response. On Monday alone, losses were 2.1% for the Dow, 2.7% for the S&P, and 4% for the Nasdaq. No single day in 2024 matched this level of financial collapse.

​On March 4, during his address to Congress, President Donald Trump claimed that he had inherited an “economic catastrophe” and an “inflation nightmare” from the previous administration. However, the numbers tell a different story. Under President Joe Biden, the S&P 500 grew 58%, the Dow Jones rose 40%, and the Nasdaq climbed 46%. Much of this growth has been attributed to legislative initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, which funds scientific research and the domestic production of semiconductors, and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which changed laws and provided funds to make filing taxes easier. Together, they spurred more than $200 billion in private investments across various industries. The semiconductor sector alone added 44,000 new jobs — a crucial boost to domestic manufacturing. When the first Trump term ended, the unemployment rate was 6.3%, in comparison to 4.0% when Biden left office.

By contrast, in the first few weeks of Trump’s second term, 40,000 federal employees accepted early retirement incentives and left their positions. The care of 9.1 million veterans is likely to be jeopardized by planned cuts of 80,000 personnel from the Department of Veterans Affairs. The anticipated departure of 5,200 employees from the Department of Health and Human Services has raised concerns about the government’s ability to manage essential services.  

In February, several agency heads asked employees not to respond to a request from Elon Musk to list their weekly accomplishments. The request may be illegal, and it may compromise sensitive information. Yet, hundreds of thousands of federal employees were threatened with dismissal if they complied with federal agency directors rather than an unelected official who did not go through a formal appointment process. A poll reported last week suggested that about 60% of Americans disapprove of Musk’s role in government, and 58% are concerned about his access to sensitive information.

Meanwhile, the corporate sector is facing its own turbulence. 

Companies like Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks and CNN have all announced major layoffs. With uncertainty creeping into the labor market, consumer confidence has plummeted. Growth projections have been revised downward, and inflation expectations have surged as households brace for economic instability.  In February, the three leading indexes of consumer confidence all fell to their lowest levels in four years.The Expectations Index is now at 72.9 – a level believed to be a predictor of an impending recession. 

Weakened global standing

Beyond economic uncertainty, the U.S.’s international standing has suffered. The Trump administration’s departure from steadfast support for European allies and its wavering commitment to defending sovereign nations against illegal aggression have strained traditional alliances.

For the first time in decades, U.S. votes at the United Nations are diverging from those of key European partners. Instead of working in lockstep with NATO allies, the Trump administration appears to be courting relationships with former adversaries, including Russia and North Korea. As a result, longtime allies and major trading partners are reevaluating their commitments and exploring alternative coalitions.

Airline safety concerns rise

On the domestic front, concerns about air travel safety have surged.  

Since the inauguration, there have been at least seven aviation accidents and near-misses. While it would be unfair to directly blame the White House for these incidents, the stress on air traffic controllers, ongoing regulatory shifts and federal staffing shortages might have contributed to concerns that we are less safe than we were a few weeks back.

The bottom line

To be clear, not every issue of the past seven weeks can be traced back to the change in administration. A single event does not define an entire presidency. Airplane crashes and corporate layoffs are influenced by numerous factors beyond the Oval Office.

However, broader trends are hard to ignore. Declining consumer confidence, increasing market instability, shifts in foreign policy and labor market disruptions all point to an administration struggling to gain its footing. 

Ultimately, Reagan’s question was not about cause and effect. Instead, he used retrospective reflections about previous subjective well-being as a gauge of affinity toward the current president. As Biden learned, people will quickly turn against a popular president if their personal security is threatened.  

Today, it doesn’t take four years to feel the impact of leadership — sometimes, seven weeks is enough.   

As for me? Seven weeks ago, I felt much better off.

Robert M. Kaplan is a distinguished research professor of health policy and management at UCLA. He has held senior faculty and administrative positions at UC San Diego, UCLA, the National Institutes of Health and Stanford University. He lives in Pacific Grove.