Quick Take
With less than a week to go, Friends of Santa Cruz Metro expects it will not be able to gather the signatures needed to get its proposal for a half-cent sales tax on this November's ballot.
Santa Cruz Metro supporters gathering signatures to get a half-cent countywide sales tax on the November ballot to continue the transit agency’s increase in services now expect to miss the May 11 deadline to qualify for the ballot. Friends of Santa Cruz Metro, the group gathering the signatures, needs 10,500 signatures by the deadline.
The group had collected about 2,000 signatures by late March, and was up to 5,700 by the middle of last week. District 1 Santa Cruz County Supervisor Manu Koenig, Metro board member and endorser of the measure, confirmed to Lookout on Monday that the group expects to miss the deadline.
“It’s only been since the end of February that the notice of intent was filed, so it was always going to be tight to make the May 11 deadline,” he said, expressing his appreciation for everyone who worked to gather signatures. “Unfortunately, it looks like that’s not likely.”
Santa Cruz City Councilmember Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson, who is also a Metro board member and endorsed the measure, told Lookout via text that the committee will be meeting soon to discuss what’s next.
“I don’t think this is the last of the community conversations about this measure,” she said.
Koenig said the group aimed for 12,500 signatures to account for a margin of error, and given that it has reached about half that number, he believes the measure is likely to qualify for an election — just not this year.
The committee will continue to gather signatures to get the measure on a ballot, and could try to get it to voters in a special election or wait until 2028, but it has not yet decided its course of action.
As recently as last week, Friends of Santa Cruz Metro was holding out hope. James Sandoval, a former Metro bus driver and the current vice president of the transportation department of the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers, which represents Metro bus drivers, posted on Facebook on April 28, saying that the group needed 4,700 more signatures by May 11 in order to qualify.
“That might sound big, but it’s absolutely doable if we lock in together starting today,” he wrote. He said the group would need 25 people each collecting 200 signatures by the deadline, 50 people getting 100 signatures each, or 100 people getting 50 signatures each. “Every signature counts and every day counts right now.”
Metro’s three-year pilot program, called Reimagine Metro, includes far-reaching service and route changes with the goal of doubling ridership from 3.5 million to 7 million rides annually and providing more direct, frequent service. The overhaul was funded by a $28 million one-time state grant expected to run out early next year. The Metro board could have voted to put a measure directly on the ballot, but that would have required a two-thirds majority to pass. A citizens initiative, however, requires just over 50% approval.
Failing to pass a local funding source could have major effects on Metro. Danielle Frost, the agency’s spokesperson, previously told Lookout that Metro would likely have to reduce service by 35% to 40% by summer 2027. More than 100 employees could face layoffs, and the Youth Cruz Free program, which offers free fares for K-12 students, could be discontinued.
Koenig said potential service reductions and layoffs will be a major point of discussion as early as the next Metro board meeting on May 15.
“The question before the board is that we have to get through two fiscal years if [the measure] is on the March 2028 ballot,” he said, adding that the board will need to determine how much the agency should cut and from where.
If the group is unable to qualify for the November ballot by May 11, the county board of supervisors could choose to hold a special election to get the item to the voters, or wait until the March 2028 primary. Given the county’s financial woes, Koenig said a special election might not be in the cards, as it would cost roughly $500,000. The board will nevertheless consider it, he said.
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