Santa Cruz County agriculture industry faces uncertainty over Trump’s looming tariffs

With President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada set to go into effect next month, industries across the region are likely to feel the pinch — but just how much remains to be seen. Agriculture, which represents one of the biggest sectors of the Santa Cruz County economy, is bracing for disruption amid the uncertainties.

Christopher Valadez, president of the Grower-Shipper Association of the Central Coast, told Lookout last week that the organization is still trying to understand the possible impact. “At the present, the outlook is unclear,” said Valadez. 

The Grower-Shipper Association, founded in 1930, represents more than 300 members, including farmers, shippers and processors of fruits and vegetables in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito and Santa Clara counties.

Agriculture leaders say one concern is that other countries could respond to the tariffs by implementing their own tariffs on U.S. products. That would result in higher prices for consumers in those countries, which could negatively affect local growers’ export costs and options. In other words, if prices go up, consumers in places like Mexico and Canada could stop buying Santa Cruz County berries and opt for different products, said David Sanford, the county’s agriculture commissioner.

Growers and shippers could also face higher prices for imported materials and tools they use – fertilizer, for example. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, about 85% of the nation’s total supply of potash (a key ingredient in fertilizer) is imported from Canada. 

A spokesperson for Driscoll’s, which is headquartered in Watsonville but operates globally, said they couldn’t speculate on the potential impacts, given that the tariffs have been pushed back to April 2 and there’s still a lot of uncertainty.

“At this point, it’s difficult to assess just how much and to what degree” the region’s agricultural commodities will be affected, Sanford said. 

In Santa Cruz County, berries represent the industry’s biggest export crop; 28 million pounds of berries grown here were shipped to Mexico in 2024 and another 4 million pounds were shipped to Canada last year, according to Sanford. Another 1.5 million pounds of berries were exported to Japan.

Neighboring Monterey County exports far more — and a wider diversity of — produce, including wine grapes, lettuce, broccoli and artichokes, in addition to berries. As a result, it’s likely to be affected more significantly. But industry leaders say they’re still trying to understand the full impact.

“It’s a moving target, which makes it hard to really comment,” said Tahra Goraya, president and CEO of the Monterey Bay Economic Partnership. 

She said that tariffs are likely to seriously weaken the region’s agriculture industry and will have ripple effects that extend to adjacent industries, such as companies that provide packaging for produce as well as restaurants and brewers that could face higher supply costs.

“It’s all hyper-connected; it’s not just about individual companies,” Goraya said. “We are a smaller region, but we are really contributing to the California economy and the larger economy.”

In a statement released this month, Western Growers President and CEO Dave Puglia cautioned that even the threat of tariffs has prompted some Canadian grocery chains to either cancel orders from American growers or to require American growers to secure a foreign product supply as a substitute for U.S.-grown crops.

“There is no question that with the move to impose these tariffs, our members will confront sweeping retaliatory actions that effectively block our American-grown fresh produce from those markets,” said Puglia, whose organization represents local and regional family farmers throughout California, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico.

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