Multi-day weather system to bring season’s first major rain to region

Santa Cruz County will get its first rainstorm of the wet season next week, with a system expected to hover over the region from late Monday to late Wednesday.

“It’s gonna be pretty widespread, too,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Dylan Flynn, adding that the storm is likely to be heavier than the rain that rolled through at the end of September.

“Looks like we might have some of the biggest impacts Tuesday morning,” he said. “If you have to commute, give yourself some extra time.”

Lower county elevations are likely to see 2 to 2.5 inches of rain across the three days, with the mountains getting more — up to 3.5 inches. Wind will be moderate, said Flynn, with the greatest gusts — about 40 mph — along the coast. He added that the mountains won’t likely experience high winds with this system.

The county is emerging from the dry season, so major waterways are running low, said Flynn. That means it is unlikely that major streams will flood or breach. However, there is about a 20% to 30% chance of a thunderstorm, which could lead some smaller streams to overflow.

Flynn also said this storm won’t bring the threat of landslides, as those typically arise as the soils absorb more rain over time.

“That being said, if we get a heavier downpour, there could be some runoff, since drier soil is actually a little less permeable to rain,” he said.

October is early for such a significant amount of rain, Flynn said. With fire danger still high, the storm will likely have a positive effect — soaking dry vegetation that might fuel fires, which “puts a big damper on the end of fire season.”

Despite the low likelihood of serious problems, Flynn said it’s going to be sunny mostly all weekend, which means it’s a good time to clean out gutters and complete other autumn tasks on one’s property.

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