The ‘death knell’ of progressive electoral politics in Santa Cruz?
By the time 4 p.m. rolls around Monday, most of the vote-by-mail ballots will be tallied and, likely, most of the local implications of the 2024 primary election will become clearer.
With more than 12,000 ballots to be tallied countywide, and still more coming in the mail up until Tuesday, some races remain within a mathematical possibility of flipping; however, Lookout has called two Santa Cruz City Council races and the other two have continued trending in the same political direction as the city’s races in 2022.
Santa Cruz is still blue, but the veneer of the deep blue, Bernie Sanders-backing city seems to be fading, at least on the local dais, where all of the leading candidates represent the moderate foils to their more progressive left opponents. The two called races belong to the incumbents: Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson defeated Joy Schendledecker for the District 3 city council seat, and Sonja Brunner overcame a challenge by Hector Marin to hold onto her seat in District 2. By Friday’s tallies, Gabriela Trigueiro held a steady lead over David Tannaci in District 1 and Susie O’Hara remained ahead of Joe Thompson in District 5.
The local definitions of “progressive” and “moderates” have drawn some debate. The big distinction that followed candidates throughout this election was their views on housing development, the future look of Santa Cruz, and how the city should handle the state-mandated obligation to permit 3,736 new housing units by 2031. It seems political lines in the city are increasingly tied to affordable housing production and how best to do it. Should the city encourage developers to build and increase housing supply and try to meet demand? Or does the city pass stricter regulations and require greater inclusion of affordable housing in private developments? Candidates’ backing also can tell us about their perceived position on the political spectrum.
In Santa Cruz, if the trends hold, it will appear that the city has reached a politically moderate consensus that it has been shifting toward since the 2020 recalls of councilmembers Chris Krohn and Drew Glover.
One South County political operative and former elected official I spoke with on Friday wondered whether this primary rang “the death knell” for progressives countywide. The city of Santa Cruz’s progressives have taken loss after loss in electoral politics, watching as voters reject rent control and empty homes tax measures, recall progressive city councilmembers and say no to a deep blue slate of candidates over the past two elections.
As another local progressive voice said on a recent episode of KSQD’s “Talk of the Bay,” “I don’t know what the politics in this community are anymore.”
Keep up with Lookout’s Election Central as more races are decided
More fates will be decided after the county clerk releases another updated vote count today, expected around 4 p.m. The spirited team of reporters and editors at Lookout covering this year’s primary will be working to keep you updated on the latest numbers and their implications. You can keep up with our Campaign Trail blog for quick analysis, and our Election Central page to see the numbers.
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Looking Ahead
City, county take on California Fish and Wildlife: The California Department of Fish and Wildlife wants to expand the marine protected areas near Natural Bridges State Beach and Pleasure Point. The aim is to help the local kelp forest, which has dwindled in recent years due to a confluence of causes, from the loss of sea star populations to the proliferation of hungry purple sea urchins. On Tuesday, the county board of supervisors and the Santa Cruz City Council are each scheduled to discuss formally opposing the item. Elected officials in both governments have argued that the proposal is based on limited evidence and would unnecessarily harm recreational fishing opportunities.
BCycle’s bike-share program expands into Mid-County: If the board of supervisors gives the greenlight on Tuesday, BCycle’s electric bike-share program, as seen in places such as downtown Santa Cruz and on UC Santa Cruz’s campus, will expand to several areas in Mid-County, including Live Oak, Twin Lakes and Pleasure Point. The program, which kicked off in the city of Santa Cruz last summer, seeks to bring at least 660 e-bikes and more than 1,320 docks throughout the county.
Cannabis laws could be a-changin’: Remember last year when Supervisors Manu Koenig and Felipe Hernandez proposed significant shifts to the county’s cannabis rules to allow for cannabis lounges, cannabis farm tours and tastings, similar to the wine industry? And remember how they were criticized by other supervisors for not consulting the public before bringing up such a monumental change? Well, that public courting process is getting underway next week. The county will host four cannabis town halls over the next two weeks, through which it wants to hear about changes that are needed to how it regulates the sale and consumption of recreational pot. The meetings, which will run from 5:30 to 7 p.m., are scheduled as follows:
- Monday, March, 18, 100 Aptos Creek Rd., Aptos
- Tuesday, March 19, 275 Main St., fourth floor, Watsonville
- Wednesday, March 20, 8500 Highway 9, Ben Lomond
- Wednesday, March 27, 5200 Soquel Ave., Santa Cruz
Those who cannot make it in person can participate via Zoom.
Weekly News Diet
Local: The saga of Gopal Balakrishnan, the UC Santa Cruz professor who was fired in 2019 following an investigation into sexual assault allegations, ended last week with a $45,000 settlement with his accuser. Lookout contributor Keith Spencer has that story.
Golden State: In a once-in-a-generation primary for U.S. Senate, California chose its preferred flavor of Democrat. Rep. Adam Schiff, the Burbank Democrat, trounced his opponents to the left, Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, and will face Republican Steve Garvey in what promises to be a snoozer of a race. Is California losing its bona fides as the bleeding edge of liberalism?
Global: Sweden became the 32nd country to join NATO last week. After decades of post-World War II neutrality, Sweden’s move into the transatlantic alliance evinces broad concerns over Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s long-range plans after his invasion of Ukraine. Sweden’s prime minister called it a major, but natural, step for the nation. Only days earlier, Sweden and Finland, the other newest NATO nation, participated in NATO’s largest military exercise since the Cold War.
One Great Read
Why power eludes the French left, by Elisabeth Zerofsky for the New York Times Magazine
In the 2022 presidential election in France, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a leader of the country’s leftist movement, won nearly 22% of the popular vote. France has always been seen as the point of the arrow in leftist political thinking; yet, despite the global coverage of the country’s recent labor protests, union membership has declined significantly, and the country’s politics have lately been a tug-of-war between Marine Le Pen’s far-right party and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrism.
Mélenchon’s showing evinced a growing leftist resurgence in the country, and thanks to coalitions, his L.F.I. party now leads the largest opposition bloc in the French Parliament. It’s more power than any leftist party owns throughout Western Europe. However, L.F.I. has had difficulty translating its message into a broad base of support in the streets. As Elisabeth Zerofsky writes in this piece for the New York Times Magazine, public opinion on economic issues appears to be with the left, however, no one seems to believe in the party’s solutions to those issues.