Quick Take
Santa Cruz County shouldn’t rely on early polls or political hype when choosing its next governor, writes Casey Beyer, former CEO for the Santa Cruz County Chamber of Commerce. With a crowded field, volatile race dynamics and many undecided voters, front-runners might not reflect local priorities. Instead, Beyer believes our focus should be on candidates who address housing, jobs, homelessness and climate resilience. He sees Betty Yee and Matt Mahan as contenders who will be most aligned with the county’s needs, despite trailing in statewide polls.
Have something to say? Lookout welcomes letters to the editor, within our policies, from readers. Guidelines here.
The California governor’s race has become a guessing game, particularly with the recent explosive exit of front-runner Rep. Eric Swalwell amid allegations of sexual assault, but Santa Cruz County should look past the polls in choosing who will be best for our community.
The candidates leading statewide surveys are not necessarily the ones best aligned with our region’s priorities – and if we focus only on who is ahead right now at this delicate, volatile moment, we risk overlooking who actually fits our needs.
The latest political storylines, polling data and election prediction tools are ranking the top gubernatorial candidates. But the crowded field tells a different story: voter approval remains split across 9 major candidates, and 25% of voters remain undecided. Swalwell’s departure has shaken up the already hard-to-predict race. State Democratic party Chair Rusty Hicks has warned that a crowded Democratic field could splinter the vote under California’s “jungle primary” system, where the top two candidates advance regardless of party, raising the possibility that two Republicans could move on from the June 2 primary.
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR’S RACE: Read more coverage here from Lookout and our content partners
That is why the early polling leaders should not drive Santa Cruz County’s decision-making.
Recent surveys from Emerson College,UC Berkeley and the Public Policy Institute of California – done before the stories emerged about Swalwell – showed Swalwell with a slight edge, followed closely by Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, along with Tom Steyer and former Rep. Katie Porter. Trailing below the 5% threshold are Antonio Villaraigosa, Xavier Becerra, Betty Yee, Tony Thurmond and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
These are scientific polls, snapshots in time, based on samples of 500 to 1,600 respondents with margins of error around 3%.
Prediction markets offer a different perspective. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket showed Swalwell tanking since the allegations surfaced and before his exit from the race. They also show Mahan jumping in betting odds in some cases, with fluctuating positions that reflect perceived electability rather than voter preference. These markets are driven by traders trying to win money, not by voters expressing support, and their outcomes can shift daily based on participation and sentiment.
So who would best represent Santa Cruz County?
The answer starts with our priorities: economic vitality, job creation, affordable housing, addressing homelessness and climate resilience. Voter registration data reinforces the political reality – 59% of Santa Cruz County voters are Democrats, 13% are Republicans, and 20% are no-party-preference voters who tend to lean Democratic. Regardless of statewide polling trends, it is highly unlikely a Republican candidate will carry this county.
That makes the choice clearer. The best candidates for Santa Cruz County are not the ones leading the polls, but the ones most aligned with these priorities.
Two candidates stand out: Betty Yee and Matt Mahan
Betty Yee has strong ties to Santa Cruz County, beginning her career on the staff of former Assemblymember Sam Farr and working closely with Santa Cruz Mayor Fred Keeley when he was Farr’s chief of staff. She brings deep experience with California’s budget process and would be prepared to address the state’s fiscal challenges from Day 1. Today, California faces a growing wealth gap that has persistently affected Black and brown families disproportionately and now is being felt by middle-income families.
For college graduates entering the workforce upon graduation, entry-level jobs are fewer in number, and those for which they can compete are outnumbered by graduates and workers who have been displaced. The rapid development of artificial intelligence and its deployment and recent layoffs due to AI have elevated concerns about the security and stability of future jobs. As governor, I can see Yee increasing opportunities for economic mobility by working with regional, local and business leaders to create quality jobs that are stable, safe and pay living wages and benefits — jobs that meet regional and local workforce needs especially in high-demand fields.
Matt Mahan, a Watsonville native, brings a different, but equally relevant perspective. Raised in a working-class family, he commuted to school in San Jose before graduating from Harvard University, teaching and building a career in technology. As mayor of San Jose, he has focused on housing and homelessness with data-driven policies that show measurable improvement. Mahan’s mission is to make California an affordable place to live, work and raise a family.
As governor, I believe he will attack new taxes, red tape and lawsuits that drive up housing costs. He will hold local governments accountable for following state laws, and not stand in the way of new homes getting built.
Mahan wants to get better value for our tax dollars, by delivering more affordable homes for each dollar spent and by supporting first-time home-buyers in a way that allows the state to recoup its money when the house is sold.
Mahan is receiving both political and financial support from the tech sector and well-heeled individuals from Southern California. This election’s most prolific donors have been some of the state’s wealthiest families, who have largely coalesced around Mahan.
Mahan has taken a “tough love” approach to homelessness in San Jose by prioritizing emergency interim housing and tiny homes and pushing unhoused people to accept shelter. His views align broadly with the successful strategy of the current Santa Cruz City Council and directly with those of leading Santa Cruz mayoral candidate Ryan Coonerty, who has served as an advisor to Mahan.
Meanwhile, billionaire Tom Steyer, who is running for governor with a largely self-funded campaign, commands by far the largest war chest. Neither Yee nor Mahan currently leads in statewide polling. But that is precisely the point.
Santa Cruz County should not base its decision solely on early survey results or shifting betting markets. It should focus on which candidates understand and are prepared to act on the issues that define daily life here.
There is a narrow open path for Yee or Mahan to get one of the top two slots for a run-off in November. The real challenge is to cut through the inside political dialogue that only political and policy folks like me closely follow a campaign at all stages of the election process.
The key to this election is a majority of voters are not paying attention now and the polls show a highest percentage of voters are undecided at this stage of the primary election. I think at least one Democratic candidate will break out of the pack and hit 20% of the votes, which would be enough to get into a run-off. My intuition tells me a moderate Democrat can capture those middle voters.
That is why Betty Yee and Matt Mahan are not only the best candidates for Santa Cruz County, but also the only Democrats who I believe resonate with statewide voters.
The next governor must be in sync with our region’s economic and environmental needs. Santa Cruz County needs a partner in Sacramento who understands the business community, supports affordable housing, expands access to financial programs, strengthens education, addresses homelessness, and protects natural resources.
If you are thinking one of the top candidates – Steyer and Porter at this point – is your choice, just know that they lean to the far left of the California mainstream political spectrum. If (a big if) a Republican is in the run-off, the more liberal-leaning Democrat might not be able to win.
It is still early in the race, and much can change before Election Day – new polling, financial disclosures, endorsements and inevitable campaign missteps. We’ve seen that with Swalwell.
But the core question should remain unchanged: not who is leading today, but who is best prepared to represent Santa Cruz County tomorrow.