District 5 county supervisor: Martinez, Bradford headed to runoff for Santa Cruz Mountains seat

Tuesday, March 19, 4:45 p.m.  — Nonprofit executive Monica Martinez will face community organizer and small business owner Christopher Bradford in a November runoff for the District 5 county supervisor seat. 

Martinez secured her place in the runoff shortly after the election, redirecting all the attention to the battle for second place between Bradford and conservative candidate Tom Decker. Bradford held a narrow lead of 125 votes after election night, but has consistently widened the gap with each update from the county clerk. Tuesday’s new totals put Bradford at 3,604 votes (21.43%) and Decker at 3,346 votes (19.89%).

Theresa Ann Bond held her position in fourth place with 11.7% of the vote. Martinez held her insurmountable lead of 7,811 votes (46.4%). 

If Martinez could have eclipsed 50%, she’d have won the race outright. However, she has fallen further from the majority mark since election night. 

The 18,755 ballots now counted from District 5 voters puts turnout in that district at 48.3%. Countywide turnout sat at 45.6% as of Tuesday. 

County Clerk Tricia Webber still has an estimated 200 same-day registrations and 50 provisional ballots left to count. The next update is slated for Friday.

Previous updates

Friday, March 15, 4:45 p.m.  — Friday’s new totals put Bradford at 3,585 votes (21.44%) and Decker at 3,328 votes (19.91%). With a 257-vote lead after Tuesday, and only 975 ballots left to count countywide, Lookout called the race in Bradford’s favor. Theresa Ann Bond held her position in fourth place with 11.7% of the vote. Martinez held her insurmountable lead of 7,763 votes (46.4%). 

Monday, March 11, 4:30 p.m.  — Monica Martinez held onto her insurmountable lead in the four-person race for District 5 county supervisor after 2,224 votes were added to the tally Monday. Martinez’s 7,262 votes (46.3%) has secured her place in a November runoff election.

The race to face Martinez in the runoff remains too close to call: Christopher Bradford leads Tom Decker by 243 votes, with a known 934 votes left to be counted in the district and another 1,265 ballots still trickling in countywide. Theresa Ann Bond held her post in fourth place, more than 1,000 votes behind Decker.

If Martinez could have eclipsed 50%, she’d have won the race outright.  

The 17,663 ballots now counted from District 5 voters puts turnout in the race at 45.5%. Santa Cruz County Clerk Tricia Webber estimated Wednesday that turnout countywide would hover around 41%. 

Webber will add another batch of ballots to the tally Tuesday. Countywide, uncounted ballots included 2,200 vote-by-mail ballots, 700 same-day-registration ballots, 50 provisional ballots, 350 damaged ballots and however many ballots arrive in the mail by Tuesday’s mail drop.

Friday, March 8, 6:30 p.m.  — Monica Martinez maintained a commanding lead in the four-person race for District 5 county supervisor after 2,307 votes were added Friday. Martinez’s 6,194 votes puts her at 46%, well ahead of Christopher Bradford (21.6%), who sits in second place with 2,903 votes. 

Home builder Tom Decker, who surprised many with his showing Tuesday, sits only 238 votes behind Bradford; Theresa Ann Bond continued in fourth place, with 1,612 votes. 

If Martinez can eclipse 50% she will win the seat outright; otherwise, she will advance to a November runoff election with the second-place finisher.

Martinez said Friday that she was “honored by the support,” noting that she held more than twice as many votes as any of her opponents. However, she acknowledged the trend. 

“It looks more likely that we’re headed toward a November run-off,” Martinez said. “But I’ve got great momentum and I’m optimistic about winning.” 

Bradford said Friday that he was “taken aback” and initially concerned with how many votes Decker received. He added that “without an oracle” he remained confident he would make it out of the primary and face Martinez in a runoff, though he acknowledged Martinez still had a shot to eclipse 50% and Decker could close the 238-vote gap. 

“It looks like Monica will be going to the runoff, but her 46% support represents a ceiling for her, not a minimum,” Bradford said. “As the more moderate candidate in the, I know I can pick up those conservative votes from Tom in the runoff. The choice between myself and Monica will be very easy for those voters.”

Webber will add more ballots to the tally on Monday. Webber announced that, countywide, uncounted ballots included 11,950 vote-by-mail ballots, 700 same-day registration ballots, 50 provisional ballots, 450 damaged ballots and however many ballots arrive in the mail between Friday and Tuesday. 

Wednesday, March 6, 2 a.m. – Monica Martinez held a large lead in the District 5 Santa Cruz County supervisor race over her other opponents in the final vote tally of Tuesday night. Her 45.83% vote share put her nearly 25 percentage points ahead of her nearest opponent, Christopher Bradford, who pulled 21.03% of the vote by 1:45 a.m. Wednesday.

Martinez and Bradford were widely seen as favorites to lead the primary; however, one of the evening’s biggest surprises was Tom Decker, the district’s lone conservative candidate, who had so far drawn 19.78% of the vote. Theresa Ann Bond stood at 12.65%. 

To win this race outright, the leader needs to gain a 50% of the vote. Otherwise, the top two finishers would advance to the November general election. 

The 11,151 votes counted Tuesday night could account for more than 50% or so of the total vote in that race. That estimation is based on the percentage of registered voters –  47% – who voted in the 2022 primary. District 5 has 38,702 registered voters. Of course, that percentage could vary in this election.

Martinez outraised Bradford by 5 to 1 and received endorsements from major political figures such as incumbent Supervisor Bruce McPherson, Santa Cruz County Sheriff Jim Hart and former state Assemblymember and District 5 supervisor Mark Stone. Some wondered whether Martinez would be able to achieve an outright victory in the primary, which would require more than 50% of the vote.

“I think this community is ready for a fresh voice with experience,” Martinez said outside her election night party at the Trout Farm Inn in Felton. “I’m thrilled with the early numbers that have come in. It feels like the hard work is paying off.”

Earlier in the evening, Bradford said he thought he could pull off a victory outright in the primary, but acknowledged it wasn’t likely, especially after the first results came in. He said he’s not worried about Decker, and hopes Martinez will remain under 50%.

“If you’re a conservative, Tom is your first choice, so it’s not surprising to see his numbers in this early batch,” Bradford said. “If we can keep Martinez under 50% then there is a great chance we can take her to a runoff. In a runoff, Tom’s vote will come to me.” 

The retirement of Bruce McPherson, who has served on the board of supervisors since 2012 after a long career in state government, left a vacuum in District 5. It was quickly filled by four candidates, each running on a platform of challenging the status quo in a district that faces a backlog of storm-related road repairs along with hundreds of homes that have yet to be rebuilt after the 2020 CZU fires.

Martinez was an early front-runner in the race. The CEO of nonprofit Encompass Community Services, the county’s largest health and human services nonprofit, she ran as a candidate with the experience to navigate the county’s bureaucratic red tape. Martinez significantly outraised her competitors and secured several high-profile endorsements, including from McPherson and Hart. A Felton resident, Martinez would be the first LGBTQ+ supervisor in the county’s history if she’s elected.

Her main challenger was Bradford. A small business owner and community organizer, the Boulder Creek resident was inspired to run after struggling to rebuild his home, which burned in the CZU fires. He ran a grassroots campaign as a political outsider who understood the district’s concerns through lived experience and would take on the county establishment.

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