Quick Take
COVID rates are falling in Santa Cruz County after a significant June surge. Although health officials say it might be too early to say we’re completely out of a summer surge, they are cautiously optimistic that the county has reached its summer peak.
After June yielded Santa Cruz County’s highest rates of COVID in over a year, just a month later, the county’s coronavirus prevalence appears to be declining once again — a welcome sign as cases continue to rise across the United States.
On July 9, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimated that COVID infections are “growing or likely growing” in 45 states. That’s due in part to the KP.3 subvariant, which makes up about 37% of cases in the U.S. Another new subvariant, dubbed LB.1, is beginning to rise in prevalence, too, making up 15% of cases in the country. Both are descendents of Omicron — which the current vaccine does provide protection from — that show the same set of mutations that could make the virus more contagious.
After the significant surge in June, all three metrics used to measure COVID rates — transmission, hospitalizations and wastewater prevalence — have begun to fall. The current reproductive number — the number of secondary infections caused by a single original infection — is just about right at 1, down from just over 1.2 in late June. Wastewater prevalence is about equal with the year’s high point in January, but it is trending down.
Early July saw 14 hospitalizations countywide, which was the highest number of hospitalizations since mid-January. That number fell to seven this week.
Deputy Health Officer Cal Gordon said that although it’s likely too soon to conclude that we are past the summer surge for certain, it’s plausible that it has already peaked.
“We expected to peak in total numbers around mid-August, but our [reproductive number] is approaching 1, which means our rate of increase is steady,” he said, adding that national reports on trends in the Western United States also appear to suggest that California as a whole has reached its peak and is entering a decline. “It’s a little bit too early to say, but it is certainly suggestive that we’re going down, and the rise has not lasted as long as we had previously thought.”
Gordon said the surge could be entering a decline because of herd immunity in general as well as many people partaking in more outdoor activities, which can reduce the risk of exposure.
On the other hand, fewer people staying up to date on their boosters increases the chance of a summer surge in the first place. According to state data, only about 23% of Santa Cruz County residents and just under 15% of Californians in total received last fall’s reformulated vaccine.
Gordon added that public health officials still anticipate another reformulated vaccine to hit the shelves in September or October, which will target the KP.2 and KP.3 subvariants. Although the current vaccine does not protect against infections with KP.2 and KP.3 as well as it did against the previous dominant Omicron subvariants in the XBB family, Gordon said it does still provide strong protection against severe illness — as well as long COVID, a potentially debilitating persistence of symptoms that can last for weeks or months after an initial infection.
“There have been a number of studies to show that the vaccine does appear to reduce long COVID effects,” he said. “And I think there are a sufficient number of studies to document that this is indeed the case.”
The antiviral drug Paxlovid, which aims to prevent severe complications from an active COVID infection, is available for people over 50, and for people who are at least 12 years old, weigh at least 88 pounds and who are unvaccinated, not up to date on their vaccinations, are immunocompromised or have certain medical conditions.
Public health recommendations still separate their guidance into two groups: everyone age 5 and older, and people 65 and older. The biggest difference is that those 65 and older, or those who are moderately or severely immunocompromised, are eligible for additional doses of last year’s vaccine before this year’s rolls out. Gordon said that if you fall into that category, it might still be a good idea to get an additional dose — but you will have to wait three to four months before receiving the fall’s reformulated booster.
But most important, Gordon says, is to get up to date on your vaccines as soon as possible.
“People are still dying from COVID,” he said. “It’s still out there, and that is important for us to keep in mind.”
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