Quick Take
The summery weather of the past few days in Santa Cruz County will cool off noticeably on Wednesday as several rainy weather systems — one of which has the potential to become an atmospheric river — are set to roll in one by one over the next week.
Following a hot start to the week, temperatures are expected to quickly cool off as a few rainy weather systems head toward the Central Coast, including one potential atmospheric river in the middle of next week.
Monday and Tuesday felt more like July or August than late March, and National Weather Service meteorologist Roger Gass said temperatures got up to the mid-80s on both days.
He added that moderately large northwesterly swell has created a heightened risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, prompting the weather service to issue a beach hazards statement on Tuesday that will last through 11 a.m. Wednesday. He said that the sneaker waves – waves that usually occur within 10 or 20 minutes of each other and have the potential to sweep swimmers and beachgoers out into hazardous waters – pose the biggest danger.
“You can look at the ocean for 20 minutes and not see any large waves coming in, and then suddenly one sneaks up on you,” Gass said, encouraging people to keep their distance from the ocean while the statement is in effect. He also said that the possibility of “cold-water shock,” a phenomenon that happens when someone is suddenly immersed in cold water, which causes rapid breathing, increased heart rate and may rapidly lead to hypothermia and drowning, is a serious concern throughout the year in Santa Cruz County, making the beach hazards statement even more important to follow.
As that statement expires late Wednesday morning, rain will begin to creep into the area for the next week. However, Gass said the chance of rain is fairly slim on both Wednesday and Thursday. If it does rain, he said that the city of Santa Cruz is likely to get only a tenth of an inch of rain and the Santa Cruz Mountains could get up to a third of an inch of rain.
Two more wet weather systems are on the horizon after that, each slightly increasing in intensity. Gass said the second system is expected to make landfall Saturday night into Sunday, which could bring up to a quarter-inch of rain to the city of Santa Cruz and other lower-elevation areas and up to half an inch in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
Gass said the weather will dry out briefly on Monday and early Tuesday, but the last storm — and the strongest — in the current forecast is expected to roll in by Tuesday afternoon and linger through next Thursday.
“That is the potential atmospheric river we’re expecting to impact the region,” he said.
Gass added that the storm is still a little too far into the future for the agency to make confident predictions about rainfall totals and local effects, but said that “we are expecting the impacts to be greater” than in the previous two systems. A NWS Bay Area forecast from Tuesday says that the storm appears to have the potential for “at least 1 to 2 inches of rain to fall across the region.” Gass reiterated that these are very preliminary forecasts.
Gass said that any prediction of major local impacts like river, stream and coastal flooding, downed trees or road damage would be premature at this point, but residents should keep an eye out for worsening conditions and stay cautious.
“The likelihood of greater impacts would be if it were to stall over any one area,” he said. “We’re not expecting that to happen, but we’re still a little bit far out in time.”
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