Winter storm expected to bring heavy rain, wind, possible flooding to parts of Santa Cruz County

A storm brewing in the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring substantial rain and heavy winds to Santa Cruz County throughout Wednesday and into Thursday, followed by a possible high surf event, according to the National Weather Service.

NWS meteorologist Dylan Flynn said Santa Cruzans should expect rain for most of the day Wednesday, and that it will intensify in the evening and night before it begins to taper off.

“We have a chance of rain for the next bunch of days, all the way into Monday or Tuesday,” he said. “But really the main event here is Wednesday into Thursday.”

Over the next couple of days, Flynn said lower-elevation areas in the county will get around 3 inches of rain, and mountain communities could see up to 5 inches. Winds are expected to be around 30 mph at lower elevations, with gusts reaching up to 40 mph. In the mountains, gusts could reach 50 mph or higher. NWS has already issued a high wind warning for the mountains and a high wind advisory for the rest of the county from Wednesday morning through Wednesday night.

“It’s going to be pretty windy, and in fact, that may even be the bigger threat with downed trees and power lines on top of soggy soils,” said Flynn.

Local streams and rivers are also expected to rise, though they are not currently expected to reach flood stage. The current forecast estimates that the San Lorenzo River could reach 11 feet, with 16 feet considered flood stage; it was at 5 feet on Tuesday afternoon. NWS has issued a flood watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday night. 

The Pajaro River is also not expected to flood; however, county officials warned of flooding potential on waterways such as Soquel Creek, Aptos Creek, Corralitos Creek and Salsipuedes Creek. NWS has updated the Pajaro River’s flood stages, lowering the threshold for major flooding by several feet. NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Brian Garcia said the new figures better represent the river’s current conditions, and provide a more accurate picture of when flooding would occur.

“I would expect to see some flooding of small streams and creeks during the heaviest rainfall,” said Flynn.

However, the rain tapering off on Thursday won’t be the end of the storm quite yet. Flynn added that NWS is likely to issue a high surf advisory by the end of the day Tuesday for Thursday. He said that as the winds die down within the county, there will still be hurricane-force winds farther out in the ocean, which will cause large swells following the bulk of the storm.

“We’re going to have some really choppy waves during the high winds, but we’re still going to have some coastal problems through the day Thursday,” said Flynn. “I would expect to see a high surf advisory at a minimum.”

Another weather system looks set to roll into the county Sunday, but Flynn said that NWS expects it to be much less intense, dropping about half the amount of rain on the area as the first. “But it will be falling on already saturated soils,” Flynn said, “so it could create some problems even though there won’t be as much rain.”

Santa Cruz County said it would activate its emergency operations center for this storm. The county is advising residents to be prepared for road closures and power outages due to downed trees and branches, and to avoid travel on Wednesday if possible.

The City and County of Santa Cruz and the City of Watsonville are collaborating to open two severe weather shelters, at Depot Park on Center Street in Santa Cruz and at Veterans Memorial Hall on East Beach Street in Watsonville. They will open Wednesday at 1 p.m.

There is currently shoaling at the Santa Cruz Harbor, meaning that sand and sediment have built up in the river mouth, leaving it shallow. That could potentially affect boat travel and beach access after the storm passes.

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