Quick Take
The storm that rolled in Wednesday evening went according to forecasts, dropping up to 5 inches of rain on the Santa Cruz Mountains and up to 2.5 inches of rain on lower county elevations. Another weather system is set to make landfall as early as Saturday night, and it is expected to be comparable to the midweek storm.
Santa Cruz County got doused over the past two days, and more is on its way. The brunt of the next storm system will hit the county Sunday, forecasters say, but could roll in as early as Saturday night.
National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Roger Gass said Thursday morning that over the previous 48 hours, the Santa Cruz Mountains received anywhere from 4 to 5 inches of rain, and lower elevations in the county got between 1.5 and 2.5 inches — both of which were close to the expected totals. He added that the wind was intense at times, with gusts ranging from 50 to 60 mph at the highest elevations and 30 to 45 mph along the coast, but urban areas saw a more mellow rain storm.
“In the city of Santa Cruz, [the wind] was definitely lighter,” said Gass.
NWS had earlier this week issued a high wind warning for the Santa Cruz Mountains and a high wind advisory for the rest of the county, which expired early Thursday morning. A flood watch was still in effect until 4 a.m. Friday, as rain continues to fall and mountain runoff flows into local streams and creeks.
While meteorologists were keeping an eye on major waterways like the San Lorenzo River and the Pajaro River, neither came particularly close to flood stage during the heaviest rains Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Gass said that water levels in the San Lorenzo River crested just shy of 11 feet around 1 a.m. Thursday, and the Pajaro River water level was at about 5 feet and expected to crest just shy of 9 feet. Flood stage for each river begins when water levels reach 16.5 feet and 24.1 feet, respectively.
Intermittent rain will continue to fall through the end of the week, and yet another storm system is expected arrive in Santa Cruz County over the weekend. Gass said that storm will likely be comparable to the one that just passed, dropping anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of rain in the Santa Cruz Mountains and anywhere from 2 to 4 inches in lower elevations.
Gass said that it’s a little bit too early to say which weather warnings NWS will issue, if any, but added that Santa Cruzans can count on a similar set of advisories to the ones active over the past two days.
“We’re likely to issue another flood watch, and probably a wind advisory, too,” he said. “And the biggest impacts are going to be Sunday during the day.”
More rain will fall between Thursday and Sunday, but NWS forecasts that it will amount to less than an inch total.
It’s an El Niño year, which means that a spike in global temperatures and extreme weather is possible for the better part of the calendar year. Typically in El Niño years, the southern United States sees wetter weather, while the northern United States sees dryer weather. California’s Central Coast and Bay Area are harder to predict, said NWS meteorologist Sarah McCorkle. However, she added that after the weekend system, Santa Cruz is looking storm-free at least until mid-February.
On local roadways, California Highway Patrol’s Santa Cruz division reported a fallen tree that blocked Soquel San Jose Road north of Rancho Soquel Road around 8 p.m. Wednesday. That road, a major artery for commuters headed to Silicon Valley, has since reopened; CHP reported Thursday morning that Paulsen Road in Watsonville was closed due to flooding approximately a mile east of Green Valley Road, with no estimate on reopening as of publication time.
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